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A reminder that I begin radiation treatments tomorrow. 8 weeks, 5 days a week, taking up about 2 hours +/- in the middle of each day. For mental health purposes, I am not going to fight to update you on every last thing I see in the markets during the week. I will try to cover the important stuff. I think there will be a lot of that in the next 3 months.

Weekend reports should cover the need-to-know stuff. For example, #882 gets down to it near the end, discussing the Silver/Gold ratio and US dollar. I’ve tried to lay out what I think the implications would be if USD were to continue upward and Gold begins outpacing silver. It’s speculative now, but Q4 is nearing and that is when I expect the bear to either make himself or break himself.

I may breeze through treatments with little effect other than tiredness, or I may get dragged pretty good. Either way, I expect to power through it and be fully up to speed hopefully well before Christmas.

Precious Metals

Folks, it’s more of the same, as the bull stampedes on. Last week at the website:

• Gold Stock Video (Sept. 22, public)
• Status of an Important “Internal” (Sept. 22, subscriber-only)
• Why there have been no updates (Sept. 25, subscriber-only)
• Best of Both Worlds for Gold & Silver Miners (Sept. 26, public)

In essence, the video showed overbought and bullish stocks that I hold. The first update showed an intact internal situation from the perspective of the Silver/Gold and TSX-V/TSX ratios and the second update showed the same, plus USD bouncing but not yet unleashed. Friday’s public article showed the two “internals” already noted and also discussed the Gold/RINF, HUI/Gold and HUI/SPX ratios, all still intact as sector internal indications.

Let’s not cover previous ground. The sector is two things at once:

1. At overbought technical risk (as it has been for some time now), and…
2. Extremely bullish (as it has been for quite some time now)

If I were to drag out all the charts and indications we normally review, it would boil down to those two things above. Instead, I’d just like to talk a bit.

In owning puts (GDXJ and now, GDX) I am afforded the mental leeway to let ‘er rip. My puts are ripping me a new one, and that is exactly what they are supposed to do in a screaming bull market. But they are also allowing me to stay in said bull market.

I’ll disclaim here once again that I am no options trader, so I just took some puts out on the horizon (November and December) at strike prices I think a hard correction could register (assuming not too much time decay). How long can the screaming vertical bull go on? Dunno. But I’ll probably be willing to add more puts further out if somehow the current positions blow up completely.

The other way I am dealing with this is to take profits here and there on the more well known names (e.g. KGC full, AGI full, AEM partial, etc.) and look for opportunities with the smaller/intermediate/development stocks (e.g. NGD, BTG, EQX, RIO.V, KNT.TO, etc.) that may go their own way a little more based on company operational execution as the big FOMO (including institutions) chases the big stocks.

Another situation worth noting was a buy of Aya Gold & Silver (AYA.TO/AYASF) on Friday after a short seller bombed the stock and I was satisfied with the company’s response. It had been on watch, now it is in the portfolio. There had been operational setbacks (Zgounder) prior to the short’s attack, but those had been factored and after listening to a live stream interview with the CEO, I am satisfied that the company is on track to remedy that with good future prospects elsewhere (Boumadine).

Sure, it’s just another miner standing atop a hole in the ground saying positive things. But it’s the kind of situation I’d like to speculate on, as opposed to the vertical stuff that everybody knows.

I have slithered into a couple Silver stocks, first being former holding ABRA.V (ABBRF) and the second being Jordan’s GGD.TO (GLGDF). Oh, and old friend MAI.V (MAAIF), which got bombed after its desperation move (IMO) in acquiring a mine from Equinox. It’s a spec that it may have settled and that Doug and crew can turn things around (with an assist from the Mexican government).

Then there are the basket cases. TLO.TO, MMG.V, PGE.V, AE.V, OGN.V, AIR.V & BTT.V. They range from highly prospective to completely speculative. And as a whole, they are doing a lot of the recent profit driving. Another reason I keep a close eye on that most speculative of indexes, the TSX-V. The basket includes prospects in Au, Ag, Pt, Pd, Ni, Cu.

So the bottom line is that I’ve shimmied down the food chain to a degree. But traditionally, when the most speculative stuff starts launching we’d have a caution signal on the greater rally. I believe the money driving the likes of TLO, PGE, MMG, OGN, etc. is not yet that “bull killer” wild west sort of behavior. But the environment sure is speculative and getting unbridled and could get corrected at any time.

So the reminder is that profits are a thing. It’s legal to take them. I think the bull market has much further to go in the coming years. But it’s important to understand who we are as traders/investors. Traders trade, investors invest (and are also allowed to take profits along the way).

Weekly Charts

Weekly charts give a wider angle look. While HUI and many of its large mining and royalty drivers are going near-vertical up…

…a little feller like MMG.V is, frankly, just getting going technically, big picture wise. And it’s getting going with volume out of a base, which is not the signal of an upside blow off. It’s the signal of a launch.

PGE.V, shares some management, metals explored and U.S. location (Montana) with MMG (Colorado). However, it has exploded to near its 2021 highs and is strenuously overbought. These are exploration companies folks, and here especially, profit-taking is legal. To this point I only skimmed partial off of one position to right size it back in balance with others.

Yet greedily, I contemplate whether it is real “in the know” money buying future 20 baggers, or pump job interests that will leave little guys like me holding the bag.

Questions like that are where I will try to glean knowledge from sector insiders in the subscriber base, who, as geologists, can lend a lot of expertise. Due to my upcoming (beginning tomorrow, actually) regimen of treatments, I’ve pushed the Podcast idea out to Q1, 2026. But one geo is intimate with the two items above, and another is intimate with the below, along with BTT.V & AIR.V (a new member of the spec basket).

Over in the Nickel patch, what did TLO.TO do back in 2020 and 2022 better than it does today? Answer: nothing. What it did was ride the “battery metals” hype and get a future off-take agreement with Tesla. What has it done of late at this lower price? It has drilled some excellent holes in its effort to expand a smallish resource to something more interesting. Oh, and if I recall correctly, it has also signed an agreement with and/or received investment from GM. That’s not nothing. It is validation.

TLO could be prepping to take out resistance. A much more solid situation (drilling & agreements) than in 2020-2022. So why not attack those highs?

These are all speculative. That is why they are in a basket. I sometimes fantasize about picking just one item and throwing everything at it.

Many of us have these stories, but mine is that I owned a 1000 shares of ISRG (a former customer of mine) back in 2001 or so. I sold it back then and cringe to this day every time I see that symbol. Of course, that semi-spec back then would become a disruptive medical robot maker and Wall St. darling. The items above are roughnecks drilling holes in the ground. Eh? Hence, the basket.

Finally for the basket plays, OGN.V was spun out after being purchased by royalty Triple Flag Precious Metals. I took my free shares and added more. I see little reason to sell out this renewed incline (I’ve trimmed a few), but I do see reason to buy the next significant correction. If a spec basket can hold quality, this is that, as it is a royalty and is trusted by somebody that I trust, a fellow ID’d here as RK.

Speaking of TFPM, I found this royalty because of OGN and RK. It was added on the upper bull flag and is lumbering along. I perceive it as below the radar compared to the likes of WPM, RGLD and FNV. I don’t mind that. It’s one I’ve decided to hold onto to this point and likely future points, all things being equal.

Transitioning to actual miners, gold miner BTG is in my opinion a turnaround, emerging from the questions of Mali government interference and the development of Goose, up there in the great white north of Canada. It broke out of a long and tedious base and it is doing it on volume. That could also transition to blow off (but not blow OUT) volume as it approaches the 2020 highs. But do I want to sell it at this time? No. I want to hedge it (sector puts).

BTG’s blueprint was NGD, a previous turnaround that I added well earlier, having long-since broken out of a base of its own. NGD’s drag had been Rainy River’s choppy ramp up. Now? Not so much. Overbought, massively bullish and at risk of correction at any time.

But I should repeat that I believe the whole sector is actually on a launch after 12 years in Palookaville, while other more tony neighborhoods of the stock market just got bubbled and bubbled some more. The prospect of a long hated sector finally getting bid for real and for real reasons is why we do this infernal job of investing. Eh?

Moving on, EQX is another turnaround. Much like BTG, it has shaken off unfulfilled expectations with operational improvement and has ripped up and out of its pained uptrend channel. Were I strictly a chart humping daytrader, I’d have sold at 9.50 because that was clear resistance.

Instead, I am still holding with no current plan to sell. It’s another example of how these newer, smaller items may go on their merits more so than the huge miners like NEM, B, AEM and KGC, which are doing quite well, but also the no-brainers that the ‘tutes habitually flock to when the sector gets its MOMO and FOMO on.

U.S. Stock Market

Oh, unholy pig do I want to short you. October is almost here, which means Q4 is almost here. Which means that my time target for a market top is almost here.

Last week I did some trading (sold this, bought that), but also sold my short (SPXS). SPX is sitting on moving averages fully capable of holding it for another rally. There are positives and negatives in play, technically and personal opinion-wise. They are bullet pointed after the chart.

Positive:

• Pattern target. It’s a measurement, no more, no less. But the previous A-B-C corrective pattern played out to its measurement.
• Major trend (SMA 200), intermediate & S/T trends (SMA 50, EMAs 10 & 20) all up
• Economy moderate, but not yet showing signs of folding, and…
• A dovish tick by the Fed
• Real time (sensitive) indicators like Junk bond spreads and VIX are sound asleep, indicating a bullish backdrop (and contrarian risk).

Negative:

• ‘C’ lower low, bear market scout
• Downside gaps galore
• Negative momentum divergences (RSI & MACD)
• Caveat: that can also be interpreted as “not overbought” (gotta love TA)
• Valuations are anything but a “value” on balance
• Larger macro indications (2yr/T-bill yield divergence, Steepening Yield Curves) are bearish. This has been ongoing for much longer than previous examples (2001 & 2007).

Neutral:

• A president just as likely to jawbone something bullish as throw both spanners and monkey wrenches into the works. He wants Powell to flip dovish and that could not so ironically raise the bond market’s fears of inflation again and drive up long rates. Longer-term, he is going to install a dupe who I have little doubt will do just that.
• So it seems as though the political backdrop is stacked against the bear, when you also consider the big bill that will be business friendly. In my opinion, the bear needs to get his shit together in Q4, or risk being banished for this cycle.
• There are those seeking to declare bear markets illegal.

Market Sentiment

Still at heightened risk by Sentimentrader’s data and interpretations. That goes for gold too, which has been at perma-risk for months and months (a lesson about how to filter sentiment information in a bull market).

Fear/Greed index has backed off to neutral. But this includes the usual notes that CNN is interpreting some items that indicate high risk through complacency as neutral. For example, the VIX is on the floor, indicating extreme complacency. It should be an “extreme greed” indication, contrary-wise.

Similarly to the VIX, Safe Haven demand is also labeled neutral and folks, it is exactly where it was immediately prior to the February-April market meltdown. Here’s the visual on that.

NAAIM (investment managers) were still swimming in over-bullish, but not robustly over-bullish waters, at 86% bullish on 9/24. NAAIM hit extremes when they ding 100% or even start to leverage to 100%+.

AAII (Ma & Pa) were equally as bullish on the 24th as they were the week before (42%). For them, 42% is up there. But we are waiting for a jerk into full lathered bull mode. It could be coming.

U.S. Stock Market (including Sentiment) Bottom Line

Trends are up by all time measures. The bull is still on. Sentiment is over-bullish, but not yet “bull killer” extremely so. Our time target for a real correction or bear market to begin is Q4, which starts this week. Forces are aligned to banish the bear. Those forces plan to use policy that is both fiscally and monetarily inflationary, unless they make good on actually paying down the national debt, materially (big if, IMO).

Inflation actually informs our ongoing view that while stocks may not enter an obvious bear market, they could enter a bear market as measured by gold and possibly silver and various strategic/critical resources. This while on the surface the nominal market simply goes sideways or mildly up/down.

There is precedence, after all:

Commodities

We discussed some of the specs I hold with coverage in this area (TLO.TO, MMG.V, PGE.V, etc.). I came late to the UUUU (u3o8 w/ REE processing) party and thus felt I needed to sell 50% of the position when it ripped and spun a nice profit. A modest position in NXE was brought back to join the now modest UUUU position.

Also, IDR (small Au miner w/ large Rare Earths land package) was added back, to join its daddy, MP, he of the U.S. located production and processing of REE. I’d like to add back Aussie REE producer LYSDY if it pulls back to test support around 9.50.

Now, let me tell you of personal FOMO. I took profits on both SRUUF (uranium) and PGM (SPPP), and they kept going up. Here is SPPP’s daily chart. Got to take profits from somewhere, thought I, not wanting to sell related stocks (in this case, basket specs like MMG & PGE).

But I am already FOMO the metals. Bigger picture, Palladium especially, is breaking from a long base. I may FOMO myself right back in, preferably on a pullback. This is my personal weak psychology in this regard, not yours. I had Palladium nailed and my brain is working overtime asking why I do not hold it.

We’ll see what the coming days/weeks bring. But I don’t mind illustrating my faults and weakness as a human. We are all humans trying our best. Eh?

I fortuitously let one position in ill-fated copper miner FCX go above 45, before its tank job to close at 35. I not so fortunately ate the second position for a loss, avoiding the worst of it at 41. But copper and the copper mining sector as a whole still appear okay. I don’t have immediate interest, however.

Energy may be a different story, finally. XLE held its moving averages, kept RSI and MACD positive and then broke through resistance (now key support) to fill a gap. Follow-through needed. This is theoretically a Trump trade that has resisted going bullish. That could be about to change. On watch.

Silver/Gold Ratio: The gateway to more big time profits or a caution sign?

In essence, with the still intact implied permission of the Silver/Gold ratio (daily chart)…

…I will keep an open mind and potentially bullish view of commodities. I will keep an open mind to the precious metals rally and broad markets.

However, as a risk manager who has profited from 2025’s proceedings to this point, I am also going to remain well aware that the weekly chart shows an ongoing downtrend in the SGR, with the price doing nothing it has not done previously in the downtrend.

Consider the mass mindset out there that has silver leading us all to the profitable heavens. That mindset has erupted with this picture of what could turn out to be the Silver Bull Squirrel finally finding his nut. Or, it could be that other thing (like the things in 2016, 2020 and 2022).

Indeed, this chart rhymes with a potential broad market top (including the precious metals) in Q4. Just calling it as I see it. Until the SGR breaks this trend by clearing the 2024 high, I would have much caution in the coming weeks. As I write, thoughts of FOMO’ing the likes of the PGMs and other areas are fading in service to keeping focused on risk management.

I do this work for me as well as you. And for me, I just had a mini epiphany about further protecting 2025’s gains.

Wrapping Up

As with U.S. markets and precious metals, not much new to report globally. ACWX (Global, ex-US) has made a normal pullback to its daily EMA 20 within a strong bull trend.

ACWX/SPY is where we last left it, not yet signaling a new upturn or decline. It’s hanging around, waiting for >>>

USD to decide on continued bounce vs. failure. I am going to give weight to one tradition of the old macro. That is that if USD starts to rally for real, a world full of asset markets would quake and take a liquidity scare.

Uncle Buck took out the 50 day average and on Friday – a not surprisingly up day for markets – it eased for a test of that break.

If USD were to hold and continue upward and silver were to start to fade vs. gold I would raise an already cautious personal view to a…

RED ALERT

I do believe I’d like to be open to bear positions outside the gold stock hedges. Long volatility, short SPX, NDX, SOX, long USD, etc. First I want to see the whites of these guys’ eyes:

Portfolio

Gold is and has been viewed as long-term risk management & monetary value/stability in a balanced portfolio.

Taxable Account

In order of position size. Ha ha, see below. Note for KNTNF states location as “New Guiness”. Guess we know where my head is at after a weekend of work.

Ready to either do more selling or more hedging or even outright shorting, based on the sentiment expressed in the segment just above.

The taxable account carries very high cash levels as long as cash and equivalents are paying out. This is considered a savings account of sorts, rather than a speculation or even investment vehicle. The goal is to speculate around the periphery of that. In another market phase (e.g. post-crash), the account may get much more in the game.

Roth IRA (non-taxable, no contributions)

The chart finished with a tick to a new high. I am not that smart, and I am keeping that front of mind.

Cash & Equiv are around 73%. My gut tells me that the next move in cash levels will be higher (if I don’t decide to short to any large degree). That’s my gut. I am going to let indications like Silver/Gold and its evil twin Gold/Silver and its partner USD, advise.

Cash & income-generating Equivalents are at levels that are right for me and my real-world situation. Your situation is different. Cash will be adjusted as needed.

Refer to the In-Week Notes under the NFTRH Premium menu at nftrh.com for market talk and occasional trading info, if interested. Also, you can follow on X @NFTRHgt for notice of updates.

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Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH) is a weekly market report in which we provide analysis on financial markets.  We make every effort to provide accurate and high quality content, but this analysis ultimately represents our opinions and these opinions are provided without warranty or guarantee of any kind.  See full terms & conditions of service under the ‘About’ heading in the main menu.