I am aligning with other wise guys who see the bond bull getting over baked (how long ago it seems that the herds were on the exact opposite side of…
Gold is the leader. The playbook calls for it to bottom amid deflationary pressure and lead everything else up into the next inflation. Gold>Silver>Miners>Commodities>Stocks... or something along those lines. The…
Here is the 10/2 as presented live here. The spread is pulling back very recently but maintains a modest uptrend (steepening) for 2019. Here is the 5 year view showing…
Over the years we've made a pretty big deal about how the herds get put off sides in bonds prior to macro cycle changes. The 2008 deflationary event put 'em…
A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus…
The charts are super interesting to look at. How quickly things turn, as if on a dime. 2018 featured a break above the Continuum's limiter and folks, you and I…
Just one look at the daily chart of SPX tells us - in hindsight - that this may have all been about gap acquisition. I was completely right and righteous…
Just a post to touch base with the most important market on earth, the US bond market which, along with a lot of other indicators (like for one example, Copper's…
The headline says it all (click for the story)... This is fine because one of our major themes - assuming we do not go full blown counter-cyclical here in the…
I have to hit the road today for most of the day. But a little note here as USD is firm and gold is getting dropped because, well, GDP was…
No long-winded post about what I think it means. Just a picture of the 'inflation protected' US Treasury bond iShares (including dividends) hitting new highs. While the unprotected Treasury fund…
This is the opening segment from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 544. This segment is usually written before I've done the weekend work, which is…
So the Fed has stated its goal to inflate, but it does not happen in real time. There had to be a reason for the Fed to turn into a…
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues... The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks... While the nominal 2 year yield does…