FOMC

Federal Reserve

Here You Go, Speed Readers…

Release Date: June 15, 2016

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the pace of improvement in the labor market has slowed while growth in economic activity appears to have picked up. Although the unemployment rate has declined, job gains have diminished. Growth in household spending has strengthened. Since the beginning of the year, the housing sector has continued to improve and the drag from net exports appears to have lessened, but business fixed investment has been soft. Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation declined; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

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June 15, 2016
Inflation & Deflation

Look Ma, No Inflation!

This is pretty handy at the moment, I'd say.  When there is "no inflation" (at least by gauges like this) that is the time that inflation can be promoted, eh?…

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June 14, 2016
alice
Financial Markets / NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH; Pre-FOMC Notes and Charts

A look at how a few markets are setting up pre-FOMC.

The charts are what they are, but we are dependent upon what the Fed may or may not put out there on Wednesday.  I would put the odds of a rate hike at just this side of zero.  But they are free to leave forward looking wording as is or do a little tweaking from the currently ultra dovish stance toward at least opening a discussion for rate hike expectations for June.

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April 26, 2016
Financial Markets / NFTRH

NFTRH 392 Out Now

We talk a lot about FOMC stuff, inflation stuff and silver stuff.  At 40 easy to read pages (w/ lots of graphical data backing up the themes) NFTRH 392, the…

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April 24, 2016
Federal Reserve / Notable Public Posts

The Clown Show Has Come and Gone

The opening segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole has a little fun with the post-FOMC market situation.  Unfortunately, there is all too much reality in this clowning around.  From NFTRH 387:

Our main theme has been that the ironclad post-2011 confidence in the Federal Reserve among conventional market participants would slowly but surely start to fade because macro parlor tricks, so vigorously employed by the Bernanke Fed, were only tricks or in some cases (Operation Twist) borderline magic, after all.

clowncar

At biiwii.com (still unsure if or in what capacity the site may reappear) we used to have fun with clown car videos, as the various Fed members piled out honking horns, doing somersaults and shouting incomprehensible phrases and announcements.

Like Rosco’s clown car above, that is all fading away now. The pretense that the Fed is the steward of a sound financial system and currency has been stripped away. We are no longer anticipating a waning of confidence. In rolling over last week and playing dead, the Fed announced for all the world to see that it is no more secure or respectable than the clown known as ‘the Draghi’, Kuroda the Klown or the troupes in Canada, Australia, England and China’s Central Planning.

The US Fed, through no good work of its own was the beneficiary of a Goldilocks environment in which global economic pressures resulted in capital flight into the US.

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March 20, 2016
NFTRH

NFTRH 387 Out Now

No time for a promo today.  A good report, and a lot of editorial commenting to boot (incl. the coolest old clown car you'll ever see!). Subscribe to NFTRH Premium…

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March 20, 2016
Federal Reserve

Post-FOMC; Uup is Down

Not only was there not a policy surprise – you know, in the face of recent commodity strength and those embedded services costs throughout the economy – but the Fed did not even talk tough, which I thought they might do.  Maybe Yellen will wobble and speak out of both sides of her mouth at the press conference.

Here is the USD ETF flopping on the non-event.

uup

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March 16, 2016
Federal Reserve

Okay Speed Readers…

Time to whip through this text and then start hitting buttons!  Or not.

Release Date: March 16, 2016

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

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March 16, 2016
alice
Economy

Leading and Other Indicators: Time to Hike?

According to the amalgamation of 'Leading Indicators' to the economy, it is time for a rate hike.  Here is the graph of LI and Fed Funds, from Wisdom Tree's post…

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September 14, 2015
Currencies

FOMC & Uncle Buck

I don't take too much of what goes on during FOMC week seriously with respect to making actionable moves. While in market management I try very hard to keep whatever…

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July 30, 2015
NFTRH Interim Updates

Detailed Post-FOMC Analysis

Post-FOMC The first line of the FOMC statement yesterday was what I assume they wanted us to pay the most attention to.  It was packaged with a view of moderate…

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March 19, 2015