‘Anti USD’ Trade Status

Here is the USD, losing the 50 day moving average.  This is another marker along the way that keeps the correction target of 94 open.

usd

As part of the anti-USD trade, I added back SLCA on its drop this morning.  This was an NFTRH+ chart based trade idea.  Note however, that it has not dropped all the way to 33, which was the buy target.  There is a bit more room for it to decline within the parameters laid out, if it so chooses.

Commodities in general continue to look constructive to bounce on a weak USD backdrop.

Note however, that this is FOMC week.  Here is the calendar showing that event and some other data due this week.  GDP comes before the FOMC on Wednesday.  Later comes jobless claims, ISM and other items that will be paid close attention to.

calendar

If the Fed stays status quo and the economic indicators continue to soften, the USD should continue its downward trek.  Now will these all fall in line?  It is likely to be a volatile week.

Turning to the precious metals, we had noted that the silver CoT was improving as of Tues. the 21st and was likely to have improved more later last week.  On Friday gold and silver looked bearish and today we whipsaw the other way.  Here’s how things look…

GLD is back above the SMA 50 and trying to cross the EMA 50.

gld

It was noted in NFTRH 340 that silver had to hold 15.50 (long-term support, equiv. of 14.63 per SLV below) to keep the bounce scenario going, and also that it should lead gold in an anti-USD commodity bounce.  It had curiously not been doing so… until today.

Note that the SLV wedge break out need to not go any higher as half the wedge has already been retraced.  These things are just short-term bullish patterns when they break out.

slv

But the silver CoT did make notable improvements and this bears watching, especially since volume looks good so far today.

Finally, below are the nominal HUI and the HUI-GLD ratio.  Both are ‘bounce intact’ above the 50 day averages.  But the 180 area on HUI is very key resistance.

hui.hgr

Bottom Line

This week has a lot going on.  We will have better conclusions when the week’s data and FOMC are behind us, and then again at the end of next week (Non-Farm Payrolls).  But taken in a vacuum, the US dollar is still corrective and the bouncers are still bouncing (though silver came very close to its critical support).