NFTRH+; A Timely Historical Study on L/T Yields, the Yield Curve, Gold, USD & Financials

I want to share some historical work done by Sentimentrader about the current setup in Treasury bonds. A caveat is that I think ST is a little convoluted in their presentation, so I am not including the confusing aspects of the analysis. I think they mean ‘yields’ not ‘bonds’ when they talk about ‘smart’ money bets. The bets for a steepening yield curve should be … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Timely Historical Study on L/T Yields, the Yield Curve, Gold, USD & Financials

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; A Piggie w/ a Potentially Very Bullish Chart

Any discussion of the banks and greater Financials sector has to include a discussion about interest rates. I believe that long-term interest rates will eventually work higher and if that results in a steepening yield curve (with the Fed pinning down the short end) so much the better for the banks as long as the economy holds up. In other words, if a cyclical inflation … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Piggie w/ a Potentially Very Bullish Chart

nftrh plus

NFTRH+; A Trade Setup for Those w/ a Positive View on Yields

Much like the previous update on the Small Caps assumes a short-term bearish view on the USD, this update assumes a short-term bullish view on long-term Treasury yields (the recent spike in yields reversed yesterday and they are down again today). Personally, I am not at all clear on the short-term situation in yields but added COF yesterday for its chart and to temporarily at … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Trade Setup for Those w/ a Positive View on Yields

alice

NFTRH; The First Real Market Input Comes In (med. priority)

We have been waiting to clear the Trade War noise and get to the meat of what will really drive the market view this summer; that is earnings season and the expectations therein from analysts and investment firms. See this post at Biiwii for a look at how it is starting off for the Financials sector. Tank de la Bank It is by my friend … Continue reading NFTRH; The First Real Market Input Comes In (med. priority)

alice

NFTRH; 2 Sectors Keying Off Interest Rates

As everybody knows, long-term interest rates have been rising since the beginning of September, well before the FOMC supposedly surprised markets with a lean to a hawkish stance (for December) and an affirmation of its plan to slowly reduce the $Trillions in assets from its balance sheet. We’d already seen this potential in the bond sentiment and CoT data. If the market does the logical … Continue reading NFTRH; 2 Sectors Keying Off Interest Rates

Attending to Short Positions

Profit taken on the still much ugly DBC, which has dropped to potential support. Loss taken on GDX, which was overseeing the hold and additions of longs that look like prospective ‘GDXJ rebalance’ plays in the gold/silver miner patch. Just part of doing business and no biggie. Still short SPY (just because, as there’s no technical signal to be doing so). Holding short the Financials … Continue reading Attending to Short Positions

A Look at Financials & Interest Rates

This post started off as a simple one on the Financials, but then riffed along into yield dynamics and the contrary bond play – of a much different kind that the previous one we managed – that is developing.  In an overwhelmingly net long portfolio (which includes the very large cash position it will continue to keep as the high risk bull market, sans major … Continue reading A Look at Financials & Interest Rates

Updating the Yields/Financials Situation

Just because I have an interest on a macro level (interest rates and the dynamics therein) with rates being key to all other markets and because I have an interest in the Financials sector, which has done good work consolidating ‘vs. SPX’ since the initial ‘Trump trade’ up surge, I want to keep an eye on this situation. We have noted that the contrarian bullish … Continue reading Updating the Yields/Financials Situation

10yr hedgers

Interest Rates & Financials; What Thing Looks like the Others

The 10yr yield has formed a pattern that has some potential at least. On its own it does not support a bullish view on yields (bearish on bonds), but suffice it to say, if long-term Treasury bonds were to drop and yields rise, the Financials and Banks would likely benefit. But where it gets interesting is in the Treasury bond market’s sentiment and CoT structures. … Continue reading Interest Rates & Financials; What Thing Looks like the Others