.75% hike in the bag
FOMC will raise the funds rate by .75% on November 2 So says CME Group... And so says the bond market... ...as the Continuum spikes to and through our target…
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October 19, 2022
Public posts
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Yield Curve: Peak Fed? [w/ edit]
As per one of my favorite 'not taking the analysis too seriously' market memes... ...we note that global casino patrons are good and pissed, scared and downright apoplectic. Especially overseas…
October 18, 2022
Commodities not buying it
Commodity tracker DBC remains vulnerable And I remain short. As the stock market bounces and some outlier commodity segments also bounce, here is a conspicuous non-participant, as the "last inflated…
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October 18, 2022
“Earnings Apocalypse not yet realized” (yes, we know)
The mainstream financial media advises that earnings are still okay The earnings apocalypse has not yet materialized From NFTRH 727... In support of this case [edit: a developing NFTRH market…
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October 17, 2022
NFTRH 727, out now
Back to the more formal and in my opinion, elegant format this week. This will be the default with online posted reports being secondary for more direct points to be…
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October 16, 2022
“Post-bubble contraction”
"Post-bubble contraction" (PBC) as coined by Bob Hoye, may finally be at hand Bob Hoye has been talking about a coming post-bubble contraction (PBC) for many years, in my experience.…
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October 14, 2022
CPI on message
CPI increases more than expected, but it's not forward-looking See Inflation increased 0.4% in September, more than expected despite rate hikes Well first of all guys, CPI is not inflation.…
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October 13, 2022
CRB index: almost too perfect
The CRB index tentatively turned down where it should have I am short commodities (DBC) as my only current short position. Hence, I have an interest in this oh so…
October 12, 2022
Fed minutes: what else is new?
Fed minutes show the hawking Fed fully feathered They can't be this dumb. So there has to be a reason why the Fed, despite myriad signs of economic and inflationary…
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October 12, 2022
Man stares at charts, announces 2022 US bear market on October 12
It's not about using charts in a vacuum And it's certainly not about using long-term charts and analogs in a vacuum. It's about using charts as one tool among several…
October 12, 2022
ISM continues to decelerate
The September ISM shows manufacturing continuing to weaken Of course, this is a forward looking economic indicator, so why would our friends at the inflation-fighting Federal Reserve take it or…
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October 12, 2022
Au/ES, Au/HG & Au/Ag ratios (& USD)
Gold's ratios to stocks, copper and silver (daily charts)... "It's a process" he parroted for months on end. Gold/ES continues its recovery and bodes well for the counter-cyclical view from…
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October 11, 2022
Hoye’s Post-Bubble Contraction
Below is a short excerpt from NFTRH 726 on the post-bubble contraction, as coined by Bob Hoye. My critique of Bob's timing does not compare to my admiration of his…
October 11, 2022
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