A jawbone of a different kind

Powell cheers the stock market with words of a softening stance

Or at least that is how markets are interpreting the smaller rate hikes to come. Problem is, we already knew that December was very likely to see .5% hike, not the .75% that markets have become accustomed to. Click image to get article (which I have not read because… why would I need to?).

jerome powell press conference on rate hikes

How did we already know that the December hike was likely to be only .5%? Because, this…

cme group fed rate hike probabilties

This is roughly the alignment it was in about a week ago when I last checked. Da boyz and girlz at da CME Group have been anticipating .5% and the Powell headlines are tracking that, not the other way around.

The damn disinflationary-deflationary 2023 plan is on track and that takes into account the little relief bounce going on in the inflation trades with Jerome big mouth Powell providing an in-day reversal of sorts. It’s punch bowl season after all, ain’t it?

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