Previous articles and posts of interest.
Recently I have gotten wordy about the decline in 'inflation expectations' beginning on June 2, right on through yesterday's update of the TIP-TLT ratio and TLT in essence, attaining their…
[edit] Subsequent to this post the precious metals and US dollar have reversed their upside. This is not at all inconsistent with the article's premise of a coming inflationary phase,…
Silver (SLV) is breaking through resistance. Gold (GLD) is as well. Gold-Silver ratio and USD (UUP) are going in different directions today. This will not last. HUI led the Silver-Gold…
It must be a gold bull market because... Gold analysts (code for gold obsessives; analysts cover asset markets, including gold), who for years pumped people to be bullish despite an…
After an interaction with an NFTRH subscriber (the ones with whom I have corresponded are so smart it can be intimidating sometimes) who debates the view of a pervasively inflationary…
[edit] Please see a new post with more perspective on a would-be 'inflation trade' and its limitations. The following excerpt is the opening segment from this week's edition of Notes…
Another NFTRH 396 excerpt, not for publication elsewhere. It is a companion to the discussion about the Semiconductor sector and the economy as well as other economic discussion that took…
The following is the opening segment of this week's Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 396. The report also covers, in detail, the technical status of US/Global stock markets, precious…
[edit] This from a long-time NFTRH subscriber... "Based on my more than 40 years experience as a portfolio manager and financial adviser I can only say: how right you are!"…
Otto at IKN heads upped me to an exchange he had with a subscriber (who, from what I gather is a former subscriber to NFTRH). I want to highlight and…
[edit] The post began as a simple view of the inflationary dynamics in play within the precious metals market but as sometimes happens it, err... expanded. Please excuse the wordiness. …
There has been a lot of talk about how gold is not a good inflation hedge. Indeed, with the recent bounce in inflation expectations, this was shown to be true…
The title of this article is not an assumption that you, astute reader, are little more than a robot following the direct and implied commands of other robots when trying to make logical sense of the state of modern financial markets. Personally, I have found that I need to stay on a path of post-deprogramming maintenance in order to stay right with a complex market backdrop.
On an inward-looking basis, we as investors and traders are faulty humans going up against robots (Ref. Rise of the Quantitative Robots) that are much smarter than we are with numbers, with data mining and with extrapolation. What do we have, puny little human brains with all associated biases, ego distortions and other faults? Yes, that is us.
We can mitigate these things by committing to double check our egos, first and foremost making sure we realize that we will err, we are not the best there is and the market does not care even one little bit about us. We can commit to being the best ‘me’ we can be.
Ever since beginning the ‘Macrosom‘ theme in July (and updating it here), NFTRH has been managing macro changes that would positively affect the gold sector, and quite possibly have a negative effect on broad stock markets. Early on in the precious metals bear market we noted they were “in the mirror” and opposite the stock market, which on the post-2011 cycle has been the beneficiary of the Fed’s inflation, instilling confidence in their policies by conventional market participants (after all, the right assets were going up on this cycle). In August, it appeared that the first real thrust in the direction of our macro theme kicked in as the stock market cracked.
The mechanism of this confidence racket, which allowed the promotion of inflation right through QE 3, has been a global deflationary force muting inflation signals and providing the US with a Goldilocks benefit as the US dollar strengthened. To this day the economy continues to ‘service itself’. Manufacturing and exports weakened under the regime of the strong USD, but those strong dollars bought a lot of services (which make up the vast majority of the economy) and consumer-related commodities.