Jerome Powell: "I think it's pretty clear we've avoided a recession" In response to a media member, who at Wednesday's post-FOMC press conference, asked Jerome Powell if he thinks we've…
The Fed Funds Rate is being guided down by the 3mo. T-bill yield, while the 2yr yield rises CME wiseguys are 95% sure of a .25% Fed Funds rate cut…
As nominal yields resume rising, the signal is an inflationary yield curve steepener just lately, but not necessarily going forward As for the dominant theme of the yield curve steepener…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve remains on its new steepener The macro is grinding along, subject to daily noise that drives nominal yields up or down (today's noise du jour is…
Our time target for the bull market will be registered on election day Of course, there must be a (+/-) tolerance built into the time target because who among us…
"Don't Fight the Fed" is a bromide you might want to ignore on this cycle This article is inspired by a headline I saw in the media while checking out…
Here is me, as interpreted by a machine that sounds way better than me It's chilling. I have written a lot of words about my views on yield curves, the…
The opening segment from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 829: Trends Up, Bull On, Risk High (Macro Discussion) The segment’s title might also read “Another…
The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation The media pounded and pounded the yield curve's inversion as a signal about…
If the 2yr yield is leading the 3 mo. T-bill yield (it is), the 10-3 mo. yield curve will follow the 10-2 yield curve I've used this chart repeatedly to…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step... The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion…
The 10-2yr Yield Curve has un-inverted In a move that is getting all too little airplay in the financial media, the 10-2 yield curve has ticked positive and is currently…
The 10yr-2yr Yield Curve is poised to un-invert under disinflationary, possibly coming deflationary pressure We know the story. A disgusting virus spread across the world... ...terrorizing society into social and…
Financial market stress is not in play... yet So here is the thing. During a bull market or very bullish phase, indicators give the all-clear. Come on in, the water's…