Bear Case Trumped?
In hindsight we could have expected it. Set our watch by it. Putting aside the fact that the Mexico tariff threat never should have been an overly negative input for…
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June 10, 2019
The Next Semi Upturn and Thoughts on Gold
Excerpted below is the Opening Notes segment from this week's Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 555. The report followed up this opening with extensive coverage and strategy for US…
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June 9, 2019
May Payrolls… Ruh Roh, +75K
You can get the full BLS report by clicking the graphic... Here is the monthly breakdown. As usual for the Good Ship Lollypop's consumerist economy (hey wait a minute, wasn't…
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June 7, 2019
Payrolls +196k, A Goldilocks Report
The headline says it all (tap for the MarketWatch story)... Full report here at BLS... And here is the graphical breakdown. The last few NFTRH reports have included the word…
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April 5, 2019
Palladium, PALL/Gold Ratio, SPX and the Gold Sector
Okay, now I am getting geeked out. One of the most fun and rare times in what I do is when something big happens that I feel in my gut…
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March 28, 2019
Trade War Distortions?
I have found myself writing the phrase "trade war distortions" on multiple occasions because I personally cannot see how anyone can quantify the effects of the Trump/China standoff, economically. In…
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February 27, 2019
Credit to Trump in This Case
Insert here the disclaimer that I don't care for the man, I don't like most of what he stands for, or his funny haircut. But also insert here that protecting…
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February 25, 2019
Jobs Are Great! But is the Semi Canary Still Sick?
I am not talking my book (well, I guess I am if I am a counter-cyclical gold bug) because I am significantly more long than short the market at the…
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February 1, 2019
Baltic Dry Index Caves In
We follow this one each week in NFTRH's Global Market Internals segment. When I was noting the curious positive price divergence (most recent spike) by this shipping cost index to…
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February 1, 2019
Semi Equipment: Chirp, Chirp…
Well, it's just a single day and AMAT and LRCX are not out of the woods, but TSMC did just place a nice order with Applied Materials. TXN had better…
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January 24, 2019
Semiconductor Sector (NFTRH 535 Excerpt)
As in January of 2013 (ahead of an economic up cycle) and Q4 2017-Q1 2018 (ahead of an economic ripple that began in 2018) the Semiconductor sector and in particular…
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January 21, 2019
Q: Semi Equipment Leadership; Just Ugly or Something Worse? A: It was Something Worse
I have so many charts that I use for NFTRH's Market Internals segment that I have had to start a new system, color coding the various internals indicators thusly... As…
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January 14, 2019
Employment Blowout
How typical. Just as everyone was getting beared up out comes the employment report featuring a blowout number of +312,000 in December (vs. an expected 188,000). Here is the blurb…
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January 4, 2019
The Canary Croaked
Ref. my post from last January that itself includes a link to my post from a year ago criticizing a media headline about a fund manager who thought he found…
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November 19, 2018
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