The opening segment from this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 829: Trends Up, Bull On, Risk High (Macro Discussion) The segment’s title might also read “Another…
Notes From the Rabbit Hole, #829 Summary US Stock Market: Bull still on as the trends are up and SOX>NDX are making some hints to recover as leaders. Market Sentiment:…
We expected a latter stage market rotation to include commodities, and now it is here From NFTRH 827 (Sept. 15) after we noted that a commodity/resources speculative guide, the Canadian…
As the economy slows, the mortgage refinance boom is among the components of the "Goldilocks" economy Some media (along with anecdotal sources witnessed on X) are trumpeting how strong the…
[edit] On a quick look, Soybeans appear to be in a similar low risk setup. I am going to look into it further, and SOYB may also be added if…
The September 22 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (#828) had some things to say about the FOMC action last week, before putting its tin foil hat back in…
The financial media appear to once again be leading the public astray about the Yield Curve situation The media pounded and pounded the yield curve's inversion as a signal about…
It is just one way of viewing the bull market, but the relationship between T-bill yields (Fed Funds proxy) and the HUI Gold Bugs index is an important one. We…
First off, I don't love that a majority of CME traders now expect a 50bp cut today, because it leaves wiggle room for the Fed to serve agenda, should it…
If the 2yr yield is leading the 3 mo. T-bill yield (it is), the 10-3 mo. yield curve will follow the 10-2 yield curve I've used this chart repeatedly to…
The 10yr-2yr yield curve has un-inverted; yet in the media? Crickets Slowly I toined [cue Brooklyn accent], step by step... The 10yr-2yr yield curve un-inverted last week, turning from inversion…
The New York Fed's September Empire Manufacturing Survey trends back to positive My economic thesis is for contraction and a counter-cyclical environment. So the September Empire Manufacturing Survey flies in…