NFTRH+; Au, Ag, Cu, DXY, GSR & ES (futures) [w/ edit]

[edit] heading into the open DXY has taken back the SMA 50. FYI… Daily chart technical snapshot of some key items Gold is testing Friday’s break above the SMA 200. If that is successful it would be the first thing needed to turn bullish. Then 1860 would need to be taken out and then 1920 is the last man standing in the way. So the … Continue reading NFTRH+; Au, Ag, Cu, DXY, GSR & ES (futures) [w/ edit]

Doctor Copper makes his move, Uncle Buck holds serve for now…

Copper price takes out the SMA 50, USD holds the SMA 50 The implication of a successful break upward by copper, would be an important member of the Reflation Olympics joining the Powell relief party. The Fed, after all, did not really mean it when they jawboned against inflation (with Yellen in the side car) earlier in the summer. It is and has been ‘reflation … Continue reading Doctor Copper makes his move, Uncle Buck holds serve for now…

NFTRH 670, out now

NFTRH 670 was uploaded for subscribers earlier today. It’s on point with the caveat being that I do not yet know what the point is. There are two potential outcomes and one of them should be indicated shortly. Sorry, no guru with a crystal ball here. Just a guy doing methodically doing work. Oh, and stock charts to boot! NFTRH 670, out now… Continue reading NFTRH 670, out now

The Vampire speaks

Jerome Powell speaks about policy as inflation indicators invite the Fed to continue its course (thanks to the summer cool down) It appears that things cooled a little too much for some peoples’ comfort. Remember, the (inflating) vampire needs to be invited into your macro house. The 30yr Treasury yield has done that this summer as the Continuum drops and makes its right side shoulder. … Continue reading The Vampire speaks

Doctor Copper: No technical diagnosis yet, warehouse levels surge

The copper price lurks below the SMA 50 Will we install a new happy face or a third pukey face? The mystery of Doctor Copper’s correction continues. The major daily trend is up because the up-trending SMA 200 has held so far. The SMA 50 stands in the way of a resumption of that trend just yet. This is of course just one component of … Continue reading Doctor Copper: No technical diagnosis yet, warehouse levels surge

NFTRH+; a stock that looks poised [w/ edit]

[edit] And just like that, the pattern is wrecked. Consider this chart watcher sucked in (and probably getting out). #WinSomeLoseSome Current holding VMW is attempting to break its bull flag to the upside. I say attempting even though it is currently in breakout status above the upper channel line because these things can easily suck in chart watchers and then fail. VMW is an old … Continue reading NFTRH+; a stock that looks poised [w/ edit]

alert

Stock market risk not yet realized

Stock market is at high risk, but… The ‘but’ is the old saying “markets can remain [seemingly] irrational longer than you can remain solvent” if you fight a trend that is intact at any given point. Since March, 2020 that trend has been up. Structurally Over-bullish Below is a chart showing the 10 week exponential moving average of the Equity Put/Call ratio (CPCE) that we … Continue reading Stock market risk not yet realized

NFTRH+; a look into the Dow Transports

We’ve been noting a Dow Theory non-confirmation in NFTRH over the last few months as the Transports have declined while the Dow has gone on to tick new highs. The ratio (2nd panel below) obviously tanked and represents that divergence. However, nominal TRAN has the technical look of something one might want to buy as it has pulled back within an uptrend and broken its … Continue reading NFTRH+; a look into the Dow Transports

Copper: Happy face or pukey face upcoming?

Copper bounces from the 200 day moving average It’s no surprise that copper is bouncing from the up-trending SMA 200. It would also not be surprising to see it fail where resistance meets the SMA 50 around 4.30. Equally unsurprising would be a break through resistance. It’s just the nature of the current macro as I have indicators toward liquidity loss and deflation as well … Continue reading Copper: Happy face or pukey face upcoming?

NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

With all due caveats about seasonal averages (these cover 30 years) and the variations from them in any given year, below are the facts of what these commodities have done, on average over those years. Gold’s current bounce is matching a sweet spot on the average, where an interim top comes in October and a secondary low in December before a hard bottom and upturn. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Seasonal averages for several commodities, including Au & Ag

NFTRH+; Today’s market

Quick pics and brief comments. SPX recovers to near an all-time high after a sentiment micro-twitch, NDX ticks a new high and SOX recovers above the SMA 50, regardless of its internal divergences (e.g. Semi Equipment). The world is bouncing. Since this is occurring above the rising SMA 200 it is still technically intact, unattractive pattern notwithstanding. Commodities (DBC) are bouncing but still potentially in … Continue reading NFTRH+; Today’s market

coppertube

Copper miners not (yet) buying Copper’s bounce

As the copper price firms at its daily SMA 200 the Copper Miner ETF is still bearish Copper price proxy CPER is bouncing at the SMA 200 (as is the metal). But the miners are as yet having none of it. This Head & Shoulders pattern featured ramping volume into the Head and all the substantial volume since has been distribution. Not good. CPER is … Continue reading Copper miners not (yet) buying Copper’s bounce