USD Tanks, Bonds Drop as Expected, Market Rotates for Rising Yields

First off, part of my plan is and has been a stronger dollar to come (I finally shorted the Euro today to put my money where my mouth is on this play) and that is obviously not something that has proven to be correct yet. I’ve got time, if not a lot more support. We’ve been noting that Uncle Buck’s key downside target and support … Continue reading USD Tanks, Bonds Drop as Expected, Market Rotates for Rising Yields

The Leader (NDX) and the Leader’s Leader (SOX) Cracked, but…

In an NFTRH update this morning we reviewed the charts of the leader (NDX) and its leader (SOX). Here we see the Semi leadership (to NDX) that kicked in a year ago, when we err… got bullish the Semis (amid an investing world full of apathy). The leader (to SPX) had led the market before turning down into the 2015 market top (that wasn’t) and … Continue reading The Leader (NDX) and the Leader’s Leader (SOX) Cracked, but…

Return to the Land of the Sinking Currency?

In not making a higher high before turning down below the daily SMAs 50 and 200 the Japanese Yen has painted itself vulnerable, at best. We have been noting the constructive look of the Nikkei in NFTRH and with this market especially, the currency aspect plays a big role. Japan’s stock market and its currency have, after all, been pretty well negatively correlated for about … Continue reading Return to the Land of the Sinking Currency?

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NFTRH; Semi & Tech Short-term Breakdown Potential

This is not a pleasing short-term picture for Semiconductor and Technology bulls. Since these are leaders, it is not a pleasing picture for the broad market either. After making a bearish engulfing candle yesterday SOX is in danger of breaking what may be a bear flag. NDX is doing likewise. Yesterday’s bearish reversal candles need not have significance of more than a day or two. … Continue reading NFTRH; Semi & Tech Short-term Breakdown Potential

Bonds and Related Indicators

Excerpted from the June 25 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, which also included comprehensive analysis of US and global stock markets, commodities, precious metals and stock charts galore (with the Market Internals segment, in particular, having evolved into what I find to be a must-have guide). TLT is now a buck from its target of 129. Tell me, where is all that mania … Continue reading Bonds and Related Indicators

NFTRH 453 Out Now

A whopping 69 pages of right-on macro and market analysis and stock charts out the wazoo.  A fun report to write that once again centered and oriented my thinking. 69 pages is beyond the high end of the usual 40-55 page length parameter because next weekend will be a shorter, vacation edition. I’m sure we can all use a bit of a summer break. Subscribe … Continue reading NFTRH 453 Out Now

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NFTRH+; CIEN in 3 Time Frames

Just because I was reading SEMI and had a George Gilder flashback, circa 1998… Consumer to Industrial Data Explosion Hits Supply Chain Humor aside, it got me looking at some optical networking companies and out popped Ciena’s chart(s). The daily got some volume yesterday, which got my attention. Today it is trying to make it above a short-term resistance area, after having consolidated through June. … Continue reading NFTRH+; CIEN in 3 Time Frames

Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride?

In line with our bullish forward view on USD, behold the very bearish state of the Commercial Hedger positions in the Euro (courtesy of Sentimentrader). Recent historical data speaks for itself. It appears a decline in the Euro is imminent (which, in market terms means ‘relax, it could be a while yet’ ;-) ).   The next question is, when Uncle Buck rides will he … Continue reading Hedgers Net Short the Euro, US Market Rotates; 2 Horsemen Set to Ride?