About That Gold “Flash Crash”

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Well, that term gets tossed around way too often. Gold saw a big dump into the market this morning and it dropped all the way down to last week’s lows (←sarcasm). Here is the live chart (the likes of which you can pull on many different items over at Biiwii).


In NFTRH 453 and all along we’ve been noting the not bullish state of gold and the bearish-biased state of the sector as a whole (with some notable individual exceptions). There is nothing “flash” about this; it was likely.

In an NFTRH update last week we noted…

Although gold ticked a tiny ‘higher high’ we leaned toward it being a double top with short-term significance. In dropping to the SMA 200 (1241) it is a candidate for a bounce. But I don’t like that RSI has not become oversold to the degree of the last 2 declines. Any bouncing from here will see resistance at 1261 (SMA 50) come into play. A tradeable bounce or rally should come from a more oversold condition.

By the chart I used gold bounced to 1260 and the SMA 50 (currently 1260.25). Close enough…

I covered my NUGT short last week in anticipation of a bounce and reestablished it on Friday’s continuing bounce in the miners, which had come to near the bounce projections. I realize I did not “call” that here on the site so you may discount it if you wish. But it was all in the analysis anyway.

As for the miner analysis in the update…

HUI continues to be no good on the daily view. Yesterday it was positive and any bounce from here will see minor resistance at 190 and then significantly more resistance at 195 (SMA 50) and 200 (SMA 200). That 200 day average is the daily ball and chain and is the 1st key resistance level that needs to be taken out to even consider longer-term bullish prospects for the index. Don’t let the pom pom brigade put too much noise and confusion into it. HUI is bearish below the SMA 200.

Huey made it to 194.65, right at its 50 day moving average.

All this ever was going to be was a bounce, not a bull move.

BTW, here is Heisenberg with the details of this morning’s “crash”, along with other market notables.

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