These moves were likely either sooner or later, and the FOMC's sorta kinda change of wording was just the accelerant needed. Uncle Buck is taking a break... ...and EUR/USD is…
'Close to the vest' (AKA not leaning too far one way or another, AKA cash) remains the play until the FOMC meeting and its aftermath are cleared. This is because…
Excerpted from the March 15 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 334: As the title suggests I want to talk more and chart a little less this week. …
An important new theme is introduced with respect to the Fed and its unruly subject, Uncle Buck. Lot's of other good stuff too. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35…
Gold and Silver Commitments of Traders improved again. This weekend we'll take a look at graphical views and see where the trends are at. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your…
So next week the drama will unfold once again on Wednesday as a bunch of interest rate manipulators make a "decision". The 2 year yield has been telling them since…
US Stocks
This headline says it all. Playing its assertion straight, we acknowledge that what was a bubble in asset market supporting policy could morph into a bubble and blow off (i.e. mania) in stocks.
As usual we will seek to add more to a bullish gold stock discussion, such as Treasury yields and their spreads, gold’s performance to the stock market and even the US dollar, which is very over done to the upside. All of these and more will play in to an intermediate to long-term bullish case.
I'll let you extrapolate for yourself based on the theme; with the theme being that 2 major currencies at the heart of so many current trends are ripe for reversal. …
US Stock Market
S&P 500 is +5% today in pre-market and I have not covered my short position on SPY, although for NFTRH+ purposes, the preliminary bearish trading target was 206 (SPY closed yesterday at 204.98). So that trade is complete.
I expect SPX to eventually move down to the support zone at 2000 +/-, where the decision would then be made as to whether or not we are going to test lower levels. So interim bounces could be additional shorting opportunities, as was Monday’s little joy fest.
So here we have a QE-inflated Euro tanking per ECB's wishes and an impulsive Uncle Buck, which you must know is not on the Fed's wish list (hello ZIRP). There…
It is getting downright giddy in Euro Land these days, just as NFTRH anticipated when we began writing about the effects of the strong US dollar/weak Euro dynamic back in…
In light of the positive February Employment report NFTRH 333 opened up with some discussion of the details (the devil after all, is in those details)…
The February Employment report was a strong +295,000 with unemployment dropping to 5.5%. In Friday’s Market Notes update we highlighted that per BLS this was a services-driven report as the leading edge of the economy, the smaller but key manufacturing and industrial sectors, have begun to decelerate (notably in forward-looking ‘New Orders’).
From FloatingPath.com (markups mine) we see the breakdown…
So it makes sense that ‘Jobs’ were strong because the large ‘back end’ of the US economy is responding to the years of corporate profit increases, stock market gains (wealth effect) and an overall benevolent Fed that has, every step of the way since 2008, done all it could to keep asset markets aloft (1st) and in appreciation mode (2nd). Call them Things 1 & 2, mission accomplished.
Leisure and Hospitality… America’s getting out there again, living it up and feeling secure with the gains that eventually came from the post-2012 period, after we got our first little inkling two years ago in January of 2013 with the Semiconductor Equipment ramp up. I had no idea then how strong the economy would eventually become, but the massive services sectors in the US are now fully kicked in and enjoying the benefits.
Just moving along in 'swing' mode, doing what the markets tell us to do and not trying to force anything. Simple, but it works.