Well folks, the Employment report is now playing ball (to our preferred plan of economic contraction and a 'Peak Fed' style topping out of mainstream confidence in historically unprecedented and…
Here is the S&P 500's closing price, target price and analyst ratings from FactSet... Nothing new or unusual here. A bunch of constructive to bullish analysts and a very few…
Because we learn from the past, from mistakes and successes alike, I gained something from the old 2008 post about the miners and stock market. Here is another, from March 7, 2009 as the final plunge in the US financial sectors blew out and the final seeds were sewn for the current bull market, by the intense and acute panic of the time.
So you’ll excuse me if some of the writing is a little dramatic or hyperbole tinged. It was a different time in March, 2009. I also note that I tend not to just write (stream of consciousness thoughts) as much anymore. With reports usually between 30 and 40 pages (incl. ample graphics) I don’t even get to all the hard data each week. We are now in a time where it has paid to be subservient to the markets and do what they say.
True beliefs and orientations can be expressed when the time is right. But back in early 2009 we were easily making money by following the new trends that the majority had not yet glommed on to. So there was ample time to brain dump a lot of thoughts along the way.
I barely ever look at these old NFTRH, but want to do so more often now because I think we are within hailing distance of new financial market trends and perspective is in my opinion an underutilized tool in the financial markets.
Yesterday we showed the ETF charts that were at bounce points (if they were going to bounce). Today GDX and GDXJ are up around 4%. I grudgingly added a couple…
The long, slow deceleration in US manufacturing growth continues apace. I have highlighted some of the notables, including a pop in 'Prices', despite the downward pull in energy costs. There…
Biotech, an important momentum leader to the stock market, is going to need to think about finding support soon lest this become something more than routine. IBB has already made…
I am rummaging around early NFTRH editions looking for references to Larry Summers I made in Q4 2008 to go with a post at Biiwii. In going through those crude…
I got in late last night from band practice and there was this message in my inbox. I never remember that it is April Fools day on 4/1 and almost…
S&P 500 unsurprisingly did not follow through on yesterday's China hype-fueled rally. Lateral support is shown along with two targets if support breaks. The targets are plotted by 3 charts…
We noted in NFTRH 336 that these ETFs had short-term support levels lower than where the prices stood as of the end of last week. Today they reside at those…
Not only did machine tool sales fail to get the traditional big year-end bump, despite 2014 being an IMTS year, but February's data is out and it is still burrowing…
Excerpted from NFTRH 336…
US Stock Market
We start with our perspective chart in case there is any doubt. Janet Yellen is not to be taken so seriously, but the distortions built into this chart by post-2008 policy are.
We will manage markets by daily charts with in-week updates as needed, but the weekly charts, beginning with the leading Biotech index continues to be just fine.
A trend is not broken until it is broken. This one is fully intact and last week’s put down or any to come that do not close below the blue arc line are just pullbacks within the trend. One day it will break and bears will say “I told you so”, but in the meantime BTK has been a guide instructing against active bearishness.
Meanwhile, Biotech continues to lead the Nasdaq 100 and more than that, the ratio is in a secular bull market. Now, I don’t want to go all bubble head on you but what is the implication here? To me, given the long-term nature of this chart one implication is that one technology really is standing the test of time vs. the average of so many other technologies, from critically important ones to those silly ones that allow people to take selfies and pictures of their food so they can bore other people with them.
In other words, I buy the Biotech story, long-term. That is different from calling Bio simply an important ‘momentum’ leader in the current late stage US stock bull market, which I believe it also is.
Well, I just wrote 42 pages. I'm spent, so no big promo. I am personally enjoying the market for what it gives and having a good year so far. In…
From the Commerce Department, GDP @ 2.2% and Corporate Profits declined in Q4, breaking a long trend up. That is a major concern. Here is a blurb from DoC (click…