March Payrolls Tank

Well folks, the Employment report is now playing ball (to our preferred plan of economic contraction and a ‘Peak Fed’ style topping out of mainstream confidence in historically unprecedented and manipulative policy interference).

A bad March ‘Jobs’ report joins Exports, Durable Goods, Corporate Profits and Earnings Revisions in the dumper.  Employment is the Big Daddy of them all, which even a well blindered mainstream economist will have to pay attention to.

Employment Situation Summary from BLS

march.employment

Last month we noted that manufacturing and mining employment were (predictably) down and that the bloated services sectors were hiring.  That jibes well with recent news headlines about Walmart and McDonalds starting to treat their employees like humans.

Services, the big barge at the back end of the economy is still providing the jobs but in March, as the ‘weather’ excuse started to wane, the thing dropped off badly.  Also per BLS, the jobs picture was not quite as good as previously reported to this point in 2015:

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for January was revised from +239,000 to +201,000, and the change for February was revised from +295,000 to +264,000. With these revisions, employment gains in January and February combined were 69,000 less than previously reported. Over the past 3 months, job gains have averaged 197,000 per month.

We’ll let people who focus on this stuff micro manage it from here.  We should simply note that this is a bad report, it is right in line with NFTRH’s patient operating themes and we are set up to be on the new trends when they manifest.  Ref. Q4 2008 to Q1 2009.  The herds were still thinking deflation then.

Now the herds are thinking some new stories as steadily fed to them by the mainstream financial services industry and associated media.  But the data are slowly coming in line to disappoint today’s lazy trend followers.  In NFTRH 337 we will clearly illustrate the implications of the March Employment Report on our investment themes going forward.

Meanwhile, from Calculated Risk, an utter geek about this stuff, comes this graph for perspective.  Here is CR’s breakdown…

March Employment Report: 126,000 Jobs, 5.5% Unemployment Rate

employment.march

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