Yield Curve, etc. Today

The 10 to 5 to 2 year spread is indicative of market upset, obviously.

10, 5 & 2 year yields from Bloomberg

Here is the up to the minute view of 30 year vs. 5 year yields, with a nose diving inflation expectations barometer in the lower panel.  A rising yield curve can be indicative of inflation expectations rising if long-term yields are rising faster than short-term yields.  Or it can be indicative of deflation fears rising if short-term yields are dropping faster.


US Retail sales figures are the latest issue.  Before that it was a leveling of manufacturing (note: ISM new orders) and disappointment in hourly wages within the employment report.

Of importance will be the forward looking stuff like the aforementioned manufacturing data and the Semiconductor Book-to-Bill for December.  Of course, gold vs. commodities has been telling us for months now to expect a phase of global economic contraction to some degree.

Meanwhile, most US indexes are clinging to support.  Here is one that is losing support…


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