One would think that this improved yesterday as gold and silver got hammered badly. But as of Tuesday, the CoT data were still gathering quite bearish (for short-term reaction) against the metals. Continue reading Gold & Silver CoT (1.27.15)
You see, Things 1, 2 & 3 below always were going to matter to the over bullish sector sooner or just a little later. It was sooner. I feel NFTRH did its job well in preparing people for it. When we began managing the rally, the Gold Miners were the greenest of the green. Now, not so much. Thing 1: Sentiment skyrocketed to way over … Continue reading Precious Metals; Over Bullishness to be Fixed
Sorry, I couldn’t resist the headline. D for Dragon. The Templeton Dragon fund, my preferred actively managed way to be long China/Asia, is declining within the would-be Handle of the 2nd Cup (black). It is actually the first Cup that I would consider notable because its Handle is forming after making a higher high. I am pared down on longs, but I held this one … Continue reading Double D Cup
Well, that was a heck of a post-FOMC reaction. As if the slightly redone wording actually said anything more than ‘we may raise interest rates by mid-year and then again, we may not.’ US Stock Market I have been asked about a signal to short the US markets, and the last 2 days have brought that into view as we started the week at a … Continue reading Market Notes
The other day pre-open, we noted that the market was at a decision point. Well, it seems to have decided and it’s not pretty. That’s a gross looking pattern on SPX and since that post the SMA 50 was lost and daily MACD has joined weekly MACD in crossed down territory. The January low is very important and it is under threat. Dow has made … Continue reading Updating US Stock Markets
A snapshot of current daily technicals…
Precious Metals
GLD continues to rise toward the measured target around 128, where it would be over bought. Support is 117 to 119.
[edit] It’s a little promo-ish, but I did not solicit it and the whole back and forth is important IMO in delineating the boundaries between b/s and rationality… Gary – I just wanted to say thank you for your very thoughtful public response to my email. I honestly don’t know of anyone else like you who would take the time to do that. By the … Continue reading Response to Kyle
In NFTRH 327 we noted that the markets were at a decision point, sitting in a neural zone for the short-term. An example of this neutrality being the S&P 500, nestled just above the 50 day moving average, MACD red (crossed down by weekly charts), RSI green and a sloppy looking pattern that has not made a higher high to the early January high. Meanwhile, … Continue reading Stock Market Decision Pt.
Excerpted from this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 327), a 35 page report covering economic data and indicators, US and global stock markets, commodities and clear technical and macro fundamental parameters on gold, silver and the miners… Canary’s Alive & Well This week we will cover the ECB QE action, Euro, USD and their implications for global trade. We’ll also update a still-intact … Continue reading Canary’s Alive & Well
The ‘top down’ macro work continues and frankly, I am too fried to try to detail what a good report I think #327 is. But it is high quality stuff and another in a progression of reports that will have us on the right side of things, rather than following orthodoxy in an unorthodox environment. Continue reading NFTRH 327 Out Now
Stock Markets The US market is now just about at the limits of a ‘bounce’ vs. ‘bull continuation’. Using SPY as an example. Junk bonds, while still in a downtrend, have a sneakily bullish look to them. What’s more, considering Treasury bonds over bought as I do, the HYG-TLT (and HYG-LQD) ratio can bounce, implying a renewal of risk ‘ON’. Europe is breaking to new … Continue reading NFTRH; Stock Market & PM Technicals
Yesterday we updated the hit to the miners and that update still looks valid. It looks like the reaction is just that, a reaction. But also note that the miners and the metals are much closer to their targets now and the risk vs. reward is not as good as it was before, for the short-term. Let’s look at GLD as an example of why … Continue reading NFTRH; Important Resistance Confluence on Gold
There seems to be a cottage industry out there, led by a very smart man with a very smart computer, who calls anyone who says anything bullish about gold a ‘promoter’. Yes, I myself have put out more than my share of gold bug criticism. But changing with the times is what the markets are about. So when I see charts like these, I’ll present … Continue reading Gold… and a Ramble
Last week when GDX pulled back hard we reviewed an NFTRH+ update and target of 23. Yesterday and this morning it hit that target and today, poetically, comes the next pullback. So I assume traders or those wanting to sell have done their thing and the rest of us ( I trimmed a few profits yesterday but am holding this pullback with the remaining, pending … Continue reading NFTRH; GDX Pullback Parameters
