A snapshot of current daily technicals…
Precious Metals
GLD continues to rise toward the measured target around 128, where it would be over bought. Support is 117 to 119.
SLV is in a series of higher highs and higher lows. It also has very notable resistance at 18 (ref. weekly charts, showing this area as long-term, heavy resistance). We can anticipate a reaction at some point in the not too distant future.
SLV-GLD is still rounding upward in an orderly manner. I see this as a sneaky bullish short-term underpinning because the silver bugs’ relative enthusiasm seems to be muted.
GDX tested tentative support and held. 23 (measured) is in the books and 24 is the next target for this leg.
GDX-GLD is still fine. A break and hold above the SMA 200 could put this important leading ratio into a new cyclical bull market. Regardless, we now want to see the up-turning SMA 50 hold.
Precious Metals Bottom Line
A reaction came about at initial targets and support has held. Higher targets (GLD 128, SLV 18 and GDX 24/HUI 224) represent notable resistance, where the complex would be over bought with a vulnerable Commitments of Traders configuration.
Commodities
DBC is bearish.
DBB is bearish.
COPX is bearish.
DBA is bearish.
USO is bearish.
UNG is bearish.
URA is bearish.
Commodities Bottom Line
Bearish… and in some cases deeply over sold. US dollar weakness – if applicable – would be expected to spring a rally.
Bonds
TLT is over bought (too far above the SMA 50), Junk Bonds continue to have a sneaky bullish look, though still in a downtrend. Junk vs. Treasury remains a bearish signal for markets as it is in a downtrend.
Stock Markets
SPY is bearish below the SMA 50 after failing to make a higher high (red arrow). Key support is at and above the SMA 200. Note October gaps below.
QQQ is similar as it head faked above the January high and then failed. Note October gaps. Not a bullish picture.
SMH is marginally better, but not inspiring for the bulls. Note the October gap at 50.
IBB remains the bullish leader.
IWM is not as bad as you’d think, especially if viewed on a weekly chart. Keep an eye on small caps. Still dealing with resistance around 118.
HEDJ has broken to recovery highs along with the Euro STOXX 50. Everyone’s saying how ECB QE will not work. But insofar as this is about boosting stock prices, it’s working so far.
EWC is fighting the Canadian currency as it under performs the TSX, which has bounced pretty hard.
FXI is fine above 41.
EEM has support at around 39.50. Neutral with a lean toward the short-term bull case.
INDA reflects the Indian stock market in blue sky. I’d welcome education about why Indian stocks are not over valued, because this is a bullish picture and I’d like better understanding.
Stock Markets Bottom Line
The US is looking increasingly bearish, but for the Biotechs (and yes, the interest rate sensitive Utilities) and to a lesser degree the small caps and to a lesser degree than that, the Semiconductors. Global stocks are anywhere from bouncing (Canada, EM’s) to bullish (Europe, China 25, India). We continue to be open to a global theme over the US, generally speaking and all things being equal.
Currency
UUP is still over bought by its proximity above the SMA 50.
FXE is still over sold by its proximity below the SMA 50.
FXY is still below initial resistance, but in a sneaky pattern with constructive MACD.
Currencies Bottom Line
USD bullish and over bought. Euro bearish and over sold. Yen may be forming a bounce pattern. Not shown are commodity currencies, which are still very bearish.
