NFTRH 694, out now

Actually, it was out much earlier but I am just getting to the promo post now. And there’s not much promo going on because promo would do this report a disservice. All it did was what it was supposed to do and I am satisfied that we are right on top of the markets from a ‘top down’ perspective. Plenty of time to promo (well, … Continue reading NFTRH 694, out now

NFTRH 652, Out Now

The screenshot hints about some of the directions #652 goes in.  I for one feel well tuned up about the markets for having produced it. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed interim market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to … Continue reading NFTRH 652, Out Now

S&P 500 vs. Gold (AKA Amigo #1); a Closer Look at Risk

Not much has changed since the last 3 Amigos macro update. Amigo #2 (long-term yields) has long-since reached the Continuum’s ™ limiter (the 100 month exponential moving average on the 30 year Treasury yield) and Amigos #1 (SPX/Gold) and #3 (the 10-2 yield curve) are still on their respective trends (up for SPX/Gold and flattening for the yield curve), indicating a positive and risk ‘on’ … Continue reading S&P 500 vs. Gold (AKA Amigo #1); a Closer Look at Risk

alice

NFTRH; Tariff Terror and its Would-be Effects on Stock Market TA

US Stocks Well here it is. China counter punches in the trade war drama and markets are down big, pre-US open. Personally, unless precious metals stocks fight the tide in a strong way I am going get get drawn down a bit today on my modest positioning as open short positions probably will not fully balance out the pullback in longs. But if like me … Continue reading NFTRH; Tariff Terror and its Would-be Effects on Stock Market TA

NFTRH 401 Out Now

Actually, it went out several hours ago but I’m just getting to the promo now. Sentiment is setting up for stocks and against safe havens, which means on a contrarian basis at least, Treasury bonds, gold and gold stocks are at risk. As always of late, we are watching the silver-gold ratio and a bunch of other indicators.  Our preferred inflationary growth theme is not … Continue reading NFTRH 401 Out Now

Gold vs. Stocks, Weekly Close; Fundamentals Firmer

From NFTRH 400 last weekend… “Gold vs. Stock Markets continues to look good across the board. I realize that BREXIT is on the way and there are those proclaiming how bearish this will be for gold (if no exit, or ‘sell the news’ if exit). Indeed, the going could be rough. But these are reactions to hype and we should not get caught chasing hype … Continue reading Gold vs. Stocks, Weekly Close; Fundamentals Firmer

NFTRH 399 Out Now

The gold sector’s fundamental backdrop improved with gold vs. stock markets holding up trend parameters.  But the majority may see dollar weakness as a key to the sector’s fundamentals.  These are inflationists.  That may help price action, but it does little good for the funda.  Often, quite the contrary.  Anyway, #399 is a concise, well rounded report that also included some opening words with respect … Continue reading NFTRH 399 Out Now

Gold Ratio Charts

Gold vs. Commodities is still intact, but Gold-Oil has nearly been cut in half from its highs (I think oil is over baked, but…).  That is a building fundamental pressure on open pit gold mining, especially.  In general, this remains a counter-cyclical (and disinflationary) picture, but it is being tested.  Aside from Gold-Oil, watch Gold-Silver especially. Gold vs. Stock Markets has consolidated almost fully, in … Continue reading Gold Ratio Charts

NFTRH 394 Out Now

I’ve got to run as it’s time to get ready to take out Mom, so here is the majority of the email that accompanied the report to subscribers this morning.  I think it says well enough what NFTRH 394 was about.  Well actually, I made a big deal about how I view risk in this note but the report itself pretty much covered the precious … Continue reading NFTRH 394 Out Now

alice

NFTRH; Pre-FOMC Notes and Charts

A look at how a few markets are setting up pre-FOMC.

The charts are what they are, but we are dependent upon what the Fed may or may not put out there on Wednesday.  I would put the odds of a rate hike at just this side of zero.  But they are free to leave forward looking wording as is or do a little tweaking from the currently ultra dovish stance toward at least opening a discussion for rate hike expectations for June.

Continue reading “NFTRH; Pre-FOMC Notes and Charts”

Gold, Stocks and the Miners

One is the star of the year so far, grinding higher in what could be the launch phase of a new bull market as confidence wanes in the face of NIRP and other desperate global policy actions, and the realization that this disgraceful policy designed to spur speculation and asset price appreciation is all policy makers have got left in their bags of tricks.  The endgame is a bag with a hole in it; a monetary black hole.

The other grinds on in what could be the last significant hope replenishing bounce before new downside is explored.  Various US and global indexes are already in bear markets but casino patrons are trained to look at the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 and Dow as “the stock market” and these have not yet gone ‘bear’.  If the current bear-trend bounce fails however, that confirmation would be coming promptly.

The comments above are verified by the charts of gold vs. the S&P 500 and the Euro STOXX 50.  The bullish move and current consolidation are representative of all major stock markets.  This is a trend change in gold vs. stocks (joining gold vs. commodities, which turned up long ago).

Continue reading “Gold, Stocks and the Miners”

alice

Gold’s Full House

Using the Macrocosm theme again (I can’t get enough of this gimmick) let’s update some key gold ratios in poker terms. Gold is currently working on a ‘full house’, with three of a kind (gold out performs stock markets, gold rises vs. commodities and gold rises vs. global currencies).  We can call the pair needed to complete the full house economic contraction (to varying degrees … Continue reading Gold’s Full House