alice

NFTRH; Pre-FOMC Notes and Charts

A look at how a few markets are setting up pre-FOMC.

The charts are what they are, but we are dependent upon what the Fed may or may not put out there on Wednesday.  I would put the odds of a rate hike at just this side of zero.  But they are free to leave forward looking wording as is or do a little tweaking from the currently ultra dovish stance toward at least opening a discussion for rate hike expectations for June.

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alice

NFTRH; A ‘Look-Ahead’ at Investments for a Weak Dollar

A look-ahead to some of the US and global markets and sectors that would benefit from a weaker dollar, which is the theme shaping up on the macro as the Fed backs away from support of the currency and joins the global currency Whack-a-Mole game.  Obviously, that which has suffered disproportionately under a strong dollar regime would benefit if/as it weakens.

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alice

NFTRH; Post-Yellen

Today I did something I rarely do and listened to nearly the entire Yellen speech.  The reason I usually don’t listen to these things is because I don’t want to get caught in a mental whipsaw if markets start reacting to the jawbone du jour.  But considering that in March alone the FOMC meeting (ultra dovish) and the subsequent clown show (hawks in drag paraded out just a week later) I felt that I needed some signals from Yellen.

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NFTRH 388 Out Now

NFTRH 388 was sent to subscribers earlier today.  A sensible plan seems to be coming into place about when to expect a more sustainable 'inflation trade' with the USD in…

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The Clown Show Has Come and Gone

The opening segment from this week’s edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole has a little fun with the post-FOMC market situation.  Unfortunately, there is all too much reality in this clowning around.  From NFTRH 387:

Our main theme has been that the ironclad post-2011 confidence in the Federal Reserve among conventional market participants would slowly but surely start to fade because macro parlor tricks, so vigorously employed by the Bernanke Fed, were only tricks or in some cases (Operation Twist) borderline magic, after all.

clowncar

At biiwii.com (still unsure if or in what capacity the site may reappear) we used to have fun with clown car videos, as the various Fed members piled out honking horns, doing somersaults and shouting incomprehensible phrases and announcements.

Like Rosco’s clown car above, that is all fading away now. The pretense that the Fed is the steward of a sound financial system and currency has been stripped away. We are no longer anticipating a waning of confidence. In rolling over last week and playing dead, the Fed announced for all the world to see that it is no more secure or respectable than the clown known as ‘the Draghi’, Kuroda the Klown or the troupes in Canada, Australia, England and China’s Central Planning.

The US Fed, through no good work of its own was the beneficiary of a Goldilocks environment in which global economic pressures resulted in capital flight into the US.

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NFTRH 387 Out Now

No time for a promo today.  A good report, and a lot of editorial commenting to boot (incl. the coolest old clown car you'll ever see!). Subscribe to NFTRH Premium…

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Post-FOMC; Uup is Down

Not only was there not a policy surprise – you know, in the face of recent commodity strength and those embedded services costs throughout the economy – but the Fed did not even talk tough, which I thought they might do.  Maybe Yellen will wobble and speak out of both sides of her mouth at the press conference.

Here is the USD ETF flopping on the non-event.

uup

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alice

The Day After Today [edit added]

[edit]  Enter the Draghi... sorry for my naivete.  I was out most of the day and for the life of me could not figure out how that jobs report launched…

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alice, nftrh

US Stock Market, Precious Metals & US Dollar

The Semiconductor sector was very bullish yesterday and it is a leader.  SOX refused to break down and this relative strength now manifests in a partial market recovery pre-US open…

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alice

US Dollar is Right at the Decision Point

We have been following the progress of USD and Euro for macro purposes and for management of certain global asset markets (like Europe, commodities, etc.).  For example, commodities have gotten…

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