US Dollar is Right at the Decision Point

We have been following the progress of USD and Euro for macro purposes and for management of certain global asset markets (like Europe, commodities, etc.).  For example, commodities have gotten a bounce lately as the USD slipped from iffy to precarious in its daily technical state (as the supposed Fed policy “decisions” behind it continue to be non-decisions).

Here is Uncle Buck still at a higher low to September and in a series of higher highs and higher lows out of the August low.  This is not at all a bullish chart as these highs and lows have come well below the early August high, which itself was a lower high to the March peak.  But as long as the black arrow holds, real bearishness is not yet confirmed.

As a side note and for entertainment purposes, the minute the media trumpet a DEATH CROSS of the 50 and 200 day averages (red arrow) we might want to prepare for a bounce in the buck at least.  We have noted again and again how this setup usually precedes a bounce to punish people who run an automatic mental exercise like Death Cross = Bearish and too quickly act upon it.


The bottom line is that this chart is neutral at best and goes fully bearish below the September low.  But the black arrow attests to the fact that as of this moment, with USD down again pre-US open, it has not quite yet done so.

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