alice

The Day After Today [edit added]

[edit]  Enter the Draghi… sorry for my naivete.  I was out most of the day and for the life of me could not figure out how that jobs report launched that expression of greed and momo.  Answer?  It didn’t.  Draghi could not even wait through 2 days of negative market activity before he panicked.  Yeh, this is healthy.

It’s back to normal I guess.  ‘Normal’ in this market is to screw over everybody who is dug in too deeply to one view or the other (or is not a literal in-day trader), pending a new bear trend or for that matter, a new bull trend.  That is how stuck in the middle this thing is.  All this week ended up doing technically is keep the favored bear stance just that, favored; but it also kept ‘manic up’ in play.

I am holding Semi equipment stocks short and sticking to my guns unless a) the funda change or b) the stock market rides a momentum wave that carries bold casino patrons, momos and substance abusers ever higher.  Meanwhile, I remain boring old steady Eddy, having balance with some longs*.  The Semi’s are early movers and most people do not even see a problem there yet, fundamentally.  So what was written in yesterday’s post still goes… assuming I am right, the market may not catch on to that rightness until some time later, like maybe even Q4 reporting season in Q1 2016.  Or preferably, next week.  :-)

There is a lot to think about with the contrarian Euro burst upward and a US rate hike all but loaded, and yet Uncle Buck continues to look vulnerable.  Or is this just a quick short-covering burst in the Euro?  Again, balance.  I am not leaning heavily against Uncle Buck until given more reason.  The test of support that is probably in process is not reason enough to go whole hog inflationista.

Finally, what of the precious metals?  We had them as ready to bounce, and they did.  But yield spreads are not playing ball and neither is the stock market, yet.  So yay!  The precious metals joined the ‘strong jobs’ party I guess because a lot of shorts had to be covered and some crack heads were thinking strong jobs=rising interest rates=bank lending=equals rising inflation=BUY GOLD!!!  Ha ha ha.

I hold my few quality miners and evaluate.

Hey, have a great weekend.

* I have a few of my own picks, like Boston Scientific, Faro (just added today) and a few others.  I also have a Japan view based on in-depth research I have reviewed and shared, and some preferred stocks there.  But I am evaluating whether or not to take on a service that advises fundamentally on individual US stocks.  That would be B.I.G., which has been one of my premium subscriptions in the past in service to making NFTRH the most well-rounded entity I can make it.  As with my other subscriptions at Sentimentrader, Stockcharts, etc. ya’s gots ta pay ta play.  First though, I want to get stock market confirmations and for that stuff I trust only me.  If the market puts its bear on, I’ll probably skip B.I.G. until I can project a new bull phase because they provide me value in a bull environment and in a bear one, not so much.

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