We are now into H2 2019. It’s amazing how time flies. The Semi industry has been targeting H2 2019 for a bottom and/or upturn, and here we are. For reference, linked here is Walt Custer, an industry analyst posted at SEMI projecting that “key global electronic industry monthly time series appear to have reached their 3/12 bottoms and now have begun to improve”. As World … Continue reading NFTRH; One Sector of Interest and its Implication for Another
So it would appear. Much like with the contrary (bullish) view on Treasury bonds (negative view on yields) last December to March, I’ve been nursing Uncle Buck along on a contrary bullish view while holding the Euro short (and still at a paper loss). But ever plucky, the view has had to remain the same as long as big picture support remains intact, which it … Continue reading US Dollar Finally Bottoming?
The gold sector is acting the way we’d want to a counter-cyclical sector to be acting with US and global markets throwing a fit over the geopolitical situation, which may just be an excuse for a needed correction. We’ve belabored the point that the precious metals need to exceed certain levels to give a bigger bull signal. So why not belabor it again now that … Continue reading NFTRH Update; Gold Sector Parameters and Discussion
With stocks starting the week and a new month under pressure our analysis holding open resumed correction potential is so far looking good. But on the other side of the coin, our analysis leaning short-term bearish for the gold sector is not looking so good. This is not just because the prices are green today (gold stock indexes are still below the key resistance of … Continue reading NFTRH; Stock Market vs. Gold Sector
Note for traders: HUI is hitting the bounce target range, but economic data has improved the sector’s fundamentals. Last week we got a double dose of gold sector fundamentals as ISM (manufacturing) and Payrolls both weakened in August. Today the ISM Services number is making quite a stir, greatly reducing chances for the Fed rate hike in September. After all that jawboning… go figure! Seriously, … Continue reading NFTRH Update; and ISM ‘Services’ Makes Three in the Gold Sector’s Favor
Stock Market SPX is back below the key short-term resistance line and the 50 day EMA and SMA. We are back on watch for the EMA 20 (orange dotted) as we were last week when it was tested and held. The bounce labors on, but the bulls sure are having issues. What a grind. Notably, 3 of the 4 vehicles I chose to be long … Continue reading NFTRH; Stock Market and Gold Sector incl. More CoT Discussion
Another quick snapshot of the US market. It was a perfect hit of the channel bottoms and support levels. While I remain intermediate-term bearish the markets that stance only firms up if lateral support (as shown below) is lost. If you are wondering why there are no NFTRH+ updates about shorting, it is because I don’t see setups for it in the indexes. Indeed, there … Continue reading NFTRH; Market Update on US Indexes and a Word on the Gold Sector
 Enter the Draghi… sorry for my naivete. I was out most of the day and for the life of me could not figure out how that jobs report launched that expression of greed and momo. Answer? It didn’t. Draghi could not even wait through 2 days of negative market activity before he panicked. Yeh, this is healthy. It’s back to normal I guess. ‘Normal’ … Continue reading The Day After Today [edit added]
Folks, you know I am not a sponsor of any of this stuff. I am a robot that needs to tell you what I see and how I interpret it. What I see as of today is degradation in what had been an improving though incomplete fundamental picture for the precious metals and the gold stock sector. First up we had the CoT data, which … Continue reading NFTRH Update; Gold Sector & Macro Fundamentals Taking a Step Backwards
Based on two emails received and on my own long-held (and expressed) view that a real bull market in the gold sector can and probably will be ground out against a firm USD backdrop, I wanted to delineate the basis of the current precious metals rally from the rest of what would be an anti-USD ‘inflation trade’. I have written and asked you to consider … Continue reading NFTRH Update; Additional Thoughts on USD and Gold
As you know, we have been following this constructive view of the 30 year yield vs. the 5 year yield with respect to its would-be negative implications for the stock market if the spread bottoms. Well, it is looking more like a bottom every day. Here is the daily view after this morning’s bad Payrolls report. While I cannot get a live chart, here is … Continue reading A Beneficial Day for Gold Sector Fundamentals, Opposite Economy
Today is notable because the economic data continue to decelerate (Durable Goods declined and Caterpillar layoff announcement), the stock market is doing what we expected and the gold sector is going the opposite way, as it should in its best fundamental case. This has not always been the case lately, with the gold sector often in tow with the stock market. Let’s see how things … Continue reading CAT, Durable Goods, Stock Market and the Case for Gold Mining
A commitment has come up this weekend that will only allow me the time to review key points in NFTRH 354. What a great opportunity to put more detail than usual in an update [edit: this has turned out to be NFTRH 354, with a PDF update to be mailed on Sunday].
The Semiconductor Equipment book-to-bill data are out and while June eased a bit it did nothing to cause any disturbance to Q2’s numbers. This means that through the April-June quarter the reported data of the 3 month averages remained strong. Bookings have however gone on a slight declining trend over the last 3 reports.