This article is only available at nftrh.com, anewsituation.com and Substack (sign up!) Interim Plan: Disinflation or Liquidity Scare? In 2023 we began planning for a disinflationary phase, and slowly but…
The near-term path is disinflationary, but the macro is now clearly inflationary With Treasury bonds firming up lately, it is time to review the game plan NFTRH has been working…
The chart of SPX and gold shows that volatility was hard-wired into a macro market situation that had been relatively normal prior to August, 1971 I love looking at pictures.…
"Stagflation or Deflation?"; one will come first As the Fed's Michael Barr notes, tariffs will put upward pressure on prices of items subject to said tariffs. You can tap the…
The February CPI Inflation Rate continues the disinflationary trend, but... There always seems to be a "but", doesn't there? You can click the MSM's graphic to read the details about…
Goldilocks is transitional; it's what's next that will represent the next major macro theme Ever since the 30 year Treasury bond yield (one 'top-down' macro tool NFTRH uses to gauge…
The 2 year Treasury yield has ticked a higher high It's not what I was expecting, even after the booming January Payrolls report assured Hazel that she's got job security…
Target and Walmart hit hard with cost increases What good are increased sales when every unit of sales is subject to pressured margins? It's another manifestation of our antlered friend,…
CPI ramps, but real hourly earnings decline Okay, it's another 'Inflation Friday' as the November CPI ramps (click graphic, get report)... So the headline is the big inflation number. But…
While including some personal editorial comments about gold and the precious metals sector #674 does all the real work with respect to the whole macro shootin' match. I have a…
[edit] Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield…
Goldilocks today, stagflation or deflation tomorrow? I get to write a post like this with a level of authority simply because NFTRH and possibly this public website were the only…
Stagflation in the offing, unless it's not different this time... As corporations continue to raise wages, market participants fear the Fed is wrong about supposedly "transitory" inflation, long-term Treasury bond…
ISM's Report on Business (RoB) blisters upward, but... My former residence within the real economy was right here, in the manufacturing base. I don't miss it even one little bit,…