NFTRH 722

I’ve continued to receive positive feedback about NFTRH reports as online posts, so here is another one. I am not sure why but this format allows or encourages me to speak a little more like myself and a little less like a buttoned down financial guy. It’s probably because I tend to be more casual (read: funny, obnoxious, silly, grating, etc.) with public blog posting. … Continue reading NFTRH 722

horsemen

The 2 Horsemen

Global central banks have been pumping the liquidity spigots 24/7 and the US Fed is starting to go that way as well. This during a time of supposed economic splendor and fruitfulness (it is these contradictions that are the windows into a ginned up, leveraged economy dependent on monetary policy) while the S&P 500 breaks through the bull turnstile to blue sky. A real economy … Continue reading The 2 Horsemen

Barometers to the Everything Bubble

Anthony Sanders has one of his short and entertaining posts (the Fed is a 97 lb. weakling, you know) about the Everything Bubble (@Biiwii)… Mother Of All Bubbles (MOAB) And Endless Monetary Stimulus When you see a chart like this you (well I, anyway) have trouble with all that conventional analysis out there about the stock market like P/E ratios, P/S ratios and forward expectations due … Continue reading Barometers to the Everything Bubble

Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold

Prologue: This is a bearish article written by someone who covered his short (bearish) positions today (except for the euro) and has only long positions now, in precious metals and stocks, along with a heaping helping of cash. In other words, per yesterday’s snapshot, the market had dropped to levels that could see a bounce, especially since the spark to this week’s reaction was not … Continue reading Potential Pivots Upcoming for Stocks and Gold

Gold’s “Bearish Bulls” Addressed, Now What?

[as to the article’s title, I don’t have a firm, paint-by-numbers answer, but I surely do have strategy… ] An NFTRH subscriber named Joe, who is a former fund guy and current chart cranking, idea generating maniac (←said with admiration) came up with the term “bearish bulls” recently, by which he meant that a whole lot of people were looking down in the gold sector, … Continue reading Gold’s “Bearish Bulls” Addressed, Now What?

twisty the clown

FOMC: Not Enough Inflation, Folks

Not enough inflation.  That’s what the Fed is saying yet again. FOMC Statement “Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months” The problem is, that like … Continue reading FOMC: Not Enough Inflation, Folks

twisty the clown

Dear Fed: Just Asking for Consistency

As anticipated, August was a month full of Fed jawboning because it was a month without an FOMC meeting.  I knew they would fill the void with an expectations management extravaganza. So, with the understanding that the tough talk on rates is just noise because they doggedly keep the real inflation, QE-style “tools”, in play (WTF are they afraid of, I ask for the 1000th … Continue reading Dear Fed: Just Asking for Consistency

QE; the Beat Goes On

The BoE, in battling the fallout from Brexit (a decelerating economy), has dropped rates to .25%.  Bond markets cheer, with US yields dropping (bonds up) and global bonds rising.  From Investing.com… There is talk of QE, lower bounds and supposed policy limitations.  But what it is is just one mole in the global game of Whack-a-Mole, popping its head up. Here in the US, we … Continue reading QE; the Beat Goes On

Wonderland

“If I had a world of my own, everything would be nonsense. Nothing would be what it is, because everything would be what it isn’t. And contrary wise, what is, it wouldn’t be. And what it wouldn’t be, it would. You see?” –Alice in Wonderland Silver out performs gold as both rise with Treasury bonds, which are in turn rising with stocks, as Junk bonds … Continue reading Wonderland

NFTRH 398 Out Now

45 pages and not nearly as difficult to get through as that sounds.  Things seem very clear to me about what is going on with the macro backdrop.  The May US Payrolls report was a ding back in the direction of economic contraction.  That is helpful for the gold sector’s fundamentals.  But our big theme continues morph to inflationary growth, which would open up a … Continue reading NFTRH 398 Out Now

“A Historic Bull Market”

The US is in the midst of one (Bloomberg) It’s another piece talking about this “most hated bull market of all time”. So many bull wiseguys highlight this while soft shoeing the real reason that the bull market began in the first place; unprecedented, off the charts and down the rabbit hole monetary policy that has reacted desperately at every turn to prevent any decent … Continue reading “A Historic Bull Market”

Okay Speed Readers…

Time to whip through this text and then start hitting buttons!  Or not.

Release Date: March 16, 2016

For release at 2:00 p.m. EDT

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate pace despite the global economic and financial developments of recent months. Household spending has been increasing at a moderate rate, and the housing sector has improved further; however, business fixed investment and net exports have been soft. A range of recent indicators, including strong job gains, points to additional strengthening of the labor market. Inflation picked up in recent months; however, it continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months.

Continue reading “Okay Speed Readers…”