NFTRH 721 took technical readings of the US stock market, describing the major trends but also a short-term battle for SPX between the daily SMA 50 (resistance) and lateral short-term support. Today SPX is taking out the SMA 50 to the upside after holding support. Parameters, baby. We also added this view on the prospects for a sentiment bounce as well as a logical end … Continue reading Stock market… on cue!
VIX has dropped sharply While certain sentiment indicators are bleak (contrary bullish), like the Investors Intelligence (and AAII, NAAIM, etc.) survey by way of Yardeni… …the VIX is more of a sentiment pressure indicator and it is grinding upward, but currently on a sharp pullback. The way I view this is that the pressure comes in the form of an uptrend in the VIX since … Continue reading VIX pullback within new uptrend
Excerpted from NFTRH 687, an intro to the Market Sentiment segment… We started using the chart below in order to maintain perspective back in 2020 as we managed the recovery out of the COVID crash. The rebound was in the bag from the moment the Fed began manufacturing the inflation. VIX topped out and SPX bottomed out in a blaze of glory that was a … Continue reading Recent market sentiment retrospective as we enter 2022
Ref. yesterday’s post with the oh so pensive trader with a southward pointing chart over his shoulder. Today it is a brighter picture as two calm gentlemen go about their business as usual. Again, you can click the graphic if you want to see CNBC’s breakdown of this morning’s events. I see Cramer is on the right side of the contrarian setup this morning, unless … Continue reading The picture brightens, as if on cue…
Click graphic, get hysterical media news (actually, I have not bothered to read it but judging by this trader’s face… :-))… This guy is a classic and the waterfall stock chart behind him is priceless. Hey folks, do you remember Christmas Eve, 2018? The Christmas Eve massacre? It was a glorious and culminating moment of washed out equity prices amidst hawkish Fed indifference as most … Continue reading Picture = 1000 words
Market set up to go FOMO? Stock market sentiment has been very skittish at best, and flat out bearish at most. Players reacted accordingly. So is this the point of recognition when (AAII from my chart list and NFTRH 676)… …all that scared money (Newsletters tracked by Investors Intelligence from Yardeni and #676)… …issues a collective ‘RUH ROH’ and chases the market to get re-positioned … Continue reading FOMO?
We use the basic sentiment indicators in weekly reports (AAII, NAAIM, Investors Intelligence, etc.) but my sentiment service, Sentimentrader, has daily reports that dig into more specific areas. I usually do not include them because as the last year has proven, even alarming sentiment signals can go interminably with a bullish market and I don’t want NFTRH to be an alarmist service. I want it … Continue reading NFTRH+; A Deeper Look at Sentiment
This week’s edition of NFTRH is more streamlined, having only shown one sentiment indicator (NAAIM) while simply noting that sentiment in general got fixed last week to a short-term degree, while remaining structurally over-bullish. A subscriber emailed this morning asking about the Smart vs. Dumb money indicators, so I thought I’d throw that and a couple others, courtesy of the recommended (I’ve used their premium … Continue reading Updating a Few Sentiment Indicators
Below is the ‘Opening Notes’ segment excerpted from the February 21 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 643. The point of this segment was primarily to illustrate how hard it was to adopt the inflation view in Q4 2008 and in spring of 2020. It was secondarily to point out that as of last week I was growing concerned about the the shear … Continue reading “It’s inflation all the way, baby!”
As stock market futures climb yet again this morning, we review another dangerous sentiment indicator, the Equity Put/Call Ratio Of course it won’t matter until it matters, but with the punch drunk holiday party in full swing here is another dangerous sentiment indicator for your consideration. I am short absolutely nothing other than a couple of minor precious metals hedges (which will be pressured today). … Continue reading Another Dangerous Sentiment Indicator as ES (SPX) Sports Another Positive Pre-Market
Ma should stick to baking apple pies and Pa should get back to work on the faulty alternator to the old Ford pickup, because as general market timers they are all too good… in a bad way. For months on end AAII tend to hold out against a bullish stock market until one day, seemingly out of the blue, they jerk bullish. This chart shows … Continue reading Mom & Pop Precede a Market Nose Bleed
His fund has gotten hammered in 2020 so by all means, write an article about what he thinks is coming up next. It’s been a year where you cannot help but make money (to this point, anyway) and we’re going to follow someone who’s lost $21B in hopes of what, that he is not the same guy he was in the 1st half of 2020? … Continue reading His fund has lost $21B this year; a look at media & sentiment
The scary stuff that comes in can make the fear palpable for Gary the human. There are smart people and lunatics alike (I will not link them but you may know who they are and may or may not agree about the descriptor I’ve applied to them) out on the internet telling us just how bad it is, in both the spreading contagion and in … Continue reading My inbox will not be intimidated, I tell you
At least if you go by the headlines. Just look at this orgy of negativity. The graphic links to the website if you want to go there and get up to speed on how it all ended. Otherwise, you can just gaze at the picture and wonder about its contrary implications. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium (monthly at USD $35.00 or a discounted yearly at USD … Continue reading The day the world ended…