I believe that one of these is lying. Either the current move in the Silver-Gold ratio (which we noted during the trading day on Wed.) is false (and with this morning’s pre-market activity, it is being propelled higher) or the US dollar is conspicuous in its post-Brexit strength and due to drop.
Daily technicals with no cluttering fundamental or sentiment commentary.
HUI hit resistance above 240 in the form of the neckline to a pattern that could actually prove bullish. I have been thinking at least the first gap may fill but so far, it’s not happening. The pattern, which some would call an Inverted H&S (bullish reversal) is actually a consolidation of some kind with a bullish look to it. If it were to play out that way it measures to around 275.
Silver (SLV) is breaking through resistance. Gold (GLD) is as well. Gold-Silver ratio and USD (UUP) are going in different directions today. This will not last. HUI led the Silver-Gold…
I want to preface by repeating that we are all different investors and traders with different means, methods and objectives. NFTRH is not a service that tries to instruct about what is best for others because I do not know the detailed situations of others. So the mode is to interpret the markets as best as possible from a fundamental and technical view, and also show what I, a lowly individual market participant, am doing with my own funds per my own unique situation.
GDX has hit the first level of support we had defined as the 50 day moving averages. This after the breakdown from the daily bear flags we noted a couple days ago. The next support, should the correction go deeper, is the 50% Fib retrace, gap fill and lateral support cluster at 19-20. These are the straight up daily technicals with no fundamental discussion clouding the issue.
Yesterday it was noted that the reversal upward would be a good step in the right direction but that a weekly close in that state was needed to ‘confirm’ (to the degree that anything in a financial market can be ‘confirmed’ ahead of time) a reversal to bullish.
We have been talking about the EMA 20 on the gold stock ETFs and HUI as the first level of support. Here is the view of HUI holding that area (orange dotted line) so far.
There has been a lot of talk about how gold is not a good inflation hedge. Indeed, with the recent bounce in inflation expectations, this was shown to be true…
In the weekend report we used weekly charts to show that gold has taken a good chunk of its apparent price risk out as key support was not too far away beginning in the 1180’s. Silver had lost the breakout above the would-be supportive EMA 55 and HUI was well above key support, now 140 (lateral support at October highs) to 148 (gently rising EMA 55). We have also been noting 211 as the point that greatly improves the prospects of a bull market, technically (I think the probabilities are that one is in progress, but the technicals are what they are).
The theme is that the pullbacks and/or corrections, will come. The terror attack in Brussels may have been the flashpoint for such a pullback. As noted in a public post, gold’s rise on the fear or ‘safe haven’ bid (I shorted it) is not a good thing for the gold price beyond the flashpoint. The only terrorism that matters for gold is Central Banking terror committed upon currencies and financial systems.
For months we have been having a little fun with some bears who were managing the final "plunge" using log charts. Here's the weekly log showing the breakdown that tantalized…
We have noted the key pullback support level equivalent to HUI 140 (GDX equiv. is 16.90) and so far this has not even been tested (the lowest GDX got was…
The daily charts of HUI, GDX and GDXJ below show pullback support zones as the (mini or maxi) reaction from over bought status takes hold. As noted, HUI 140 is…
Below is a chart from this morning's pre-market NFTRH update in which we laid out 3 levels to watch for on an over bought pull back. We had noted in…