S&P 500
Per the simplified big picture daily, weekly and monthly charts of SPX first introduced 6 weeks ago in NFTRH 329, we have been managing potential downside targets of 2000 and 1900.
If SPX were to hit either of these targets it would not kill the bull market, especially if 2000 holds. In that case it would be a normal, moderate and healthy correction.
The bounce has materialized, as anticipated. This almost had to happen given the vastly improved CoT structure for gold, the over sold levels of the stocks and the “puke” sentiment noted a couple weeks ago.
The first target on HUI is 180 (+/-). What we have going on there is a gap to be filled and a resistance area that has very clearly held support and provided resistance for the last 6 months.
Amidst an economic backdrop in the US that continues to very gently decelerate, we have a celebration of what was perceived by the market as a dovish Fed. Anxiety had…
Well, that was a heck of a post-FOMC reaction. As if the slightly redone wording actually said anything more than 'we may raise interest rates by mid-year and then again,…
Yesterday we updated the hit to the miners and that update still looks valid. It looks like the reaction is just that, a reaction. But also note that the miners…
Let's keep it simple. The gold stock sector is acting very nicely as an anti-market to everything else that is going down of late. It is a microcosm of the…
Gold poked above the SMA 50 and 1200 level. This is its minimum requirement to get bullish. Above 1240 and then 1260 would be very constructive. Gold has taken on…
US Stock Market
After a whipsaw on Tuesday the market made a hard move down yesterday. Amid degrading indicators like bond spreads and sentiment, the Dow and S&P 500 declined over the last 3 days from all time highs.
Our parameters between normal and abnormal are very tight. Let’s check up on them.
This is an updated view of a chart that was created so long ago I can't even remember it. I just found it rummaging through a chart list. Anyway, it…
The bounce we were speculating about is here and now it is time to manage its upside parameters. A simple weekly chart shows 188 an ultimate decider on whether the…
Traders be aware that HUI dropped below the 2008 low and is now above it again. It is deeply over sold (weekly chart below) and prone to bounce at any…
With its position well below the ‘205 parameter’, I am not trying to look for positives because that was below our tolerance to begin with. When the Ukraine hype failed as expected our targets were 220, 210 and finally 205 respectively to keep things in order. They are all history.
Gold stocks are down again today and it is now decision time (for the sector if not individuals). That is because the parameter is to not make and hold a new low to the May low on a closing basis. We noted that a bounce is possible and if it is going to happen it should happen around here, at the May low with a similar over sold RSI. Either that or it would be broken with a lower low (that does not reverse quickly).
Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.
Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.
While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.
HUI Gold Bugs Index
First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013. They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation.