NFTRH; Market Quick Check

Gold poked above the SMA 50 and 1200 level.  This is its minimum requirement to get bullish.  Above 1240 and then 1260 would be very constructive.  Gold has taken on an anti stock market stance recently.  Will it make a higher high to December if the US stock market does not make a lower low to December (just a question to ponder, see below)?

gold

Silver remained below its SMA 50.  A higher high to December is needed to gain confidence here.

silver

HUI is above its SMA 50 and 170.  180 (higher high to November) is the key trend change level.

hui

Curiously, the 10 – 2 year yield spread was down yesterday.  While other fundamental indicators were positive for the precious metals, this one remains not so.  Also see Gold Ratio Charts for more info.

10.2

The yield spread does imply that stocks are still okay.  The Gaps we have been noting are now very close to filling.  As long as the December lows are not violated, the US stock market is still okay, though other indicators like junk to quality bond spreads do not.  Crosscurrents, to say the least.

Here is the RUT poking the support zone, with the gap just below.

rut

Bottom Line

If precious metals are going to find resistance, it could be soon.  Conversely, if they are going to make bullish signals, they too are close by.  The gold miners are relatively strong, which makes sense since several (but not all) fundamental indicators are looking good.

As for US stocks, the big picture trend remains up as long as they don’t make lower lows to December.