As often noted, we should all have decided whether we are an investor, trader or whatever other style of casino patron we are prior to the correction. I hesitate to micro manage these things after they are well in progress because it feels like being a play-by-play caller, which I never want to be. That kind of stuff can encourage some people to abandon their chosen disciplines. The time for cautionary talk was before the correction started, when we noted the over bullish and over bought conditions.
So with the understanding that I am not making alarming calls, daring predictions or doing anything else other than illustrating the progress of the correction (by daily charts), here are a few pictures for consideration. Barring a stunning reversal…
HUI is dropping below the lows of the last few trading days and seems to have its sights set on filling the late June gap. But recall that by the weekly chart we use each week in NFTRH, there is very notable support at around 200, where there is… another gap! How convenient. Also conveniently, the 200 day moving average is down there (188 and rising). A test of that area is what a primary (and healthy) correction in a new bull market would look like. As noted in recent NFTRH reports, patience is key. Corrections in this sector are seldom gentle.
A look at a few individual miners that I sense several subscribers have an interest in.
BTG is right at the flimsy support known as the July low. If it drops below that, there are 3 gaps down lower, any of which can fill if this is a primary correction. We noted that “a real correction could bring it to 2 to 2.30” by weekly chart. The daily adds some context to that.
KLDX continues to be unaffected by the sector’s woes. This thing has been a leader for years now and seems to still take its role seriously. If it does get hit too, the first key for would-be investors would be the 50 day averages (blue).
KGI.TO could be forming a topping pattern, but it too has resisted the big drop with the sector thus far. Since it is already at the 50 day averages, I am not yet ruling out a trip down to the hoped-for 9(ish) area. But as yet, KGI is technically unbroken.
If I did not think I know that the sector is going lower I’d call NGD a buy here. Indeed, as noted in NFTRH 410, I did buy it. It does have a couple gaps lower, however, including one near the rising SMA 200.
SSRI is losing the lateral support of the July low. That is not good if this is not just a quick whipsaw.
For months now I have mostly played this thing as a swing trade situation and been noting that after the first real correction I’d consider holding longer or even investing. With any luck, this would be the real correction. What I’d want to see is the real fundamentals (not just the ones gold bugs dream up) doing well and the stocks at key support levels.
We have Payrolls on Friday and some damn Fed jawbone it seems like every day. So the up and down swings will be there. But until HUI, for instance, gets above its 50 day moving averages, it remains intermediate bearish.