Originally posted at Biiwii.com; thought I’d pop it up here as well.
Below is a summary of some of the aspects we follow in NFTRH to gauge a future investment stance on the gold sector. It is much more complex than simply hearing dogma that seems to make sense and then holding on for dear life…
What seems like an extensive review is really only the basics in the gold sector. That is how involved the many disparate parts are and reflects the level of work…
I knew when I published the Gold Bug Psychology article I would not be making friends this week. That's the point. I sign my real name (not some internet alias)…
A new commentary post is up at Biiwii.com that will probably bring a little hate mail. The truth always seems to do that. Gold Bug Psychology Must be Neutered
With events in play I thought we should have a market update as opposed to the usual ETF update this morning... US Stock Market The Republicans won, to no one's…
Here is this morning's pre-market NFTRH subscriber update reproduced publicly, with my compliments for anyone interested. I did not want people to fall for yesterday's bounce in the gold sector. …
Gold stocks very logically bounced from the equivalent of HUI 152, which is support from 2008 and the 2002-2003 period as we noted in NFTRH 315. When dealing with these…
One indicator at least says move along folks, nothing to see here. Palladium vs. gold, which was used as a gauge of coming economic strength in early 2013 had recently…
It is now two alert subscribers in two days who have reminded me of the 2008 'Fear Gap' situation that NFTRH has been managing since at least 2013 and maybe…
Stock Market Let's keep it simple. At the depths of the recent hysterical downside we noted that the forces pushing the market down were probably unsustainable largely due to hype…
A snapshot on gold... We noted the May/June low as the key resistance point for gold and today it is popping above that point, with a 50+ (but not over…
Well, here came the short covering rally in the precious metals. By calling it that I don’t mean that it cannot turn into something more, but today was most assuredly driven by short covering as the US dollar unwound some of its speculative sponsorship. One can assume that large speculators took it on the chin on both ends, in the USD and in gold/silver as the Commercial traders had been aligned increasingly bearish and bullish, respectively.
Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.
Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.
While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.
HUI Gold Bugs Index
First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013. They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation.
[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301’s opening segment. Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article) feel free to just skip the article. You will not get what you are looking for. The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]
[edit 2] Based on reader feedback from another site, it appears I do not understand inflation, nor that gold’s purchasing power is superior to that of the USD over the long term. What I take from this is that if you post anything positive (like USD’s ‘price’ potential) about the buck and/or negative (like gold’s price vulnerabilities) about gold certain handbook carrying people in the gold ‘community’ are going to lash out first, and read/consider second. In other words SSDD.
Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).
This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.