Gold Bug Psych 101
A new commentary post is up at Biiwii.com that will probably bring a little hate mail. The truth always seems to do that. Gold Bug Psychology Must be Neutered
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November 7, 2014
NFTRH; Market Notes
With events in play I thought we should have a market update as opposed to the usual ETF update this morning... US Stock Market The Republicans won, to no one's…
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November 5, 2014
NFTRH (public): Gold, Gold Stock Parameters, Discussion
Here is this morning's pre-market NFTRH subscriber update reproduced publicly, with my compliments for anyone interested. I did not want people to fall for yesterday's bounce in the gold sector. …
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November 4, 2014
NFTRH; Gold, Gold Stock Parameters, Discussion
Gold stocks very logically bounced from the equivalent of HUI 152, which is support from 2008 and the 2002-2003 period as we noted in NFTRH 315. When dealing with these…
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November 4, 2014
All Fixed?
One indicator at least says move along folks, nothing to see here. Palladium vs. gold, which was used as a gauge of coming economic strength in early 2013 had recently…
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November 3, 2014
Fear Gap Closing
It is now two alert subscribers in two days who have reminded me of the 2008 'Fear Gap' situation that NFTRH has been managing since at least 2013 and maybe…
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October 31, 2014
NFTRH; Market Update
Stock Market Let's keep it simple. At the depths of the recent hysterical downside we noted that the forces pushing the market down were probably unsustainable largely due to hype…
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October 31, 2014
NFTRH; Gold (GLD)
A snapshot on gold... We noted the May/June low as the key resistance point for gold and today it is popping above that point, with a 50+ (but not over…
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October 21, 2014
NFTRH; Multi-Market Update
Well, here came the short covering rally in the precious metals. By calling it that I don’t mean that it cannot turn into something more, but today was most assuredly driven by short covering as the US dollar unwound some of its speculative sponsorship. One can assume that large speculators took it on the chin on both ends, in the USD and in gold/silver as the Commercial traders had been aligned increasingly bearish and bullish, respectively.
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October 6, 2014
HUI, Gold & Silver; Fun With Monthly Charts
Outside of the sound practice that is physical gold ownership in a time of monetary gamesmanship, the precious metals sector is all about speculation, at least according to 9 out of 10 chart jockeys and momentum junkies micro managing every short-term twist and turn.
Indeed, NFTRH manages gold, silver and the gold stocks on down to the short-term views as well, but that is only because the long-term views have stated that this is a time to be paying attention. Do we pay attention because we have waited so long to promote our orthodoxy and finally be right as gold bugs? No. We pay attention when a chart tells us to pay attention.
While we manage the shorter-term views (both macro fundamental and technical) rigorously in the weekly report and interim updates, here I’d like to dial out to the big monthly picture with 3 large (click to expand as needed) charts of HUI, Gold and Silver to see their stories, which are the reasons we are managing shorter-term views.
HUI Gold Bugs Index
First HUI monthly reviews the warnings to the analysis from 2012 and 2013. They were very clear and should have kept people out of much of harm’s way with respect to gold stock speculation.
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August 15, 2014
Death of the Dollar? Gold an Inflation Hedge? Really?
[ed: Excerpted from NFTRH 301’s opening segment. Those looking for paint by numbers directions and casino game instructions (talking to readers at a certain site that may or may not re-publish this article) feel free to just skip the article. You will not get what you are looking for. The balance of NFTRH 301 did the nuts and bolts technical work on the relevant US and global markets, precious metals, currencies, etc.]
[edit 2] Based on reader feedback from another site, it appears I do not understand inflation, nor that gold’s purchasing power is superior to that of the USD over the long term. What I take from this is that if you post anything positive (like USD’s ‘price’ potential) about the buck and/or negative (like gold’s price vulnerabilities) about gold certain handbook carrying people in the gold ‘community’ are going to lash out first, and read/consider second. In other words SSDD.
Take a look around the gold bull landscape and tell me how many of them are featuring a chart like this, showing the US dollar in a bullish short-term stance (to go with the weekly bullish stance we have noted for so long in the ‘Currencies’ segment).
This is not to say that the US dollar has real value. How can it when it is hopelessly dragged down by a national debt-for-growth obsession. But as with gold, value is one thing and price is quite another. It is just that one (USD) receives a price bid due to a ‘nowhere else to hide’ sort of mentality by the majority when asset market liquidity becomes constrained and the other (Gold) receives a more solid value bid, over time.
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July 29, 2014
NFTRH; Dialing in the Precious Metals
Finally, we have seen the obvious (what most people will now take note of) kickoff to a short-term correction in the precious metals. Depending on the fundamental picture, we can plan on taking advantage of a buying opportunity as we have been noting over last couple of weeks.
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July 25, 2014
Currencies and Gold, Big Picture
We have not checked in on this motley crew at the public site in a long time (NFTRH keeps a running tab each week). Here are the monthly views of the basket cases we call major currencies.
Uncle Buck and his reserve status were leveraged to the hilt by “The Hero” and now his successor is trying to gently talk the Fed out of its policy stance over time. In other words, tightening is going to come one way or another and Janet Yellen is trying to go the orderly route. When this process becomes disorderly, the USD is likely to benefit from the liquidations elsewhere in the asset world.
Technically, USD is in a long basing pattern. There are those who think it is basing before a renewed decline, reading a Symmetrical Triangle (continuation) pattern into poor old Unc. I think the odds are it is bottoming over the post-2008 years when inflation – try as they might to have promoted it – simply has not taken root *. Leaning bullish, watch support and resistance.
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July 18, 2014
NFTRH; Gold, Silver & Miners TA Status
Gold got blown up in 2 days with respect to the short-term rally. Watch for gold to bottom before silver as we likely transition into a phase of gold leadership over silver. Key support is from the 1300 down to 1270.
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July 16, 2014