Gold

Notable Public Posts

Precious Metals Grind Out a New Trend

Gold is Monetary Value

We preface the post with a statement that has not changed since I began public writing nearly 10 years ago:  Gold is not about price; gold is about value.  This point was hammered home to me 11 years ago by a person who had much influence upon my viewpoint toward the financial system and its various diseased components at a time when I was ready to listen and understand.

So whether we are talking about 2013’s epic price crash or a new bull trend in 2014, the simple fact is that physical gold itself is a store of monetary value.  That applied last year as the value was marked down by greed and confidence and it will apply this year as it is marked up in the face of a likely unwinding of those things.  Humans, what funny and hyper kinetic animals.

Precious Metals Speculation

Ah, but this post is about the fun part, the speculative part where we humans can make gains from gaming the simple store of value and its wild little brother, silver.  As asset market speculators we care about prices, right?  How about the share prices of the completely blown to bits miners that dig the stuff out of the ground?

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February 14, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity

What Has Been

A solid 2.5 years of risk management (to varying degrees) has been required of precious metals investors.  It was most intensely required after the announcement of QE3, when the net commercial short position in silver began a relentless march toward a very bearish alignment in late 2012 and then the HUI Gold Bugs index lost an important support level at around 460.  Here is the chart of silver with a heavy commercial net short position from NFTRH 215, dated 12.2.12:

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January 7, 2014
Notable Public Posts

Party Today, Macro Market Changes Ahead

The following is an excerpt from NFTRH 270, dated 12.22.13:

Now What?  This is What

From NFTRH 269’s opening segment ‘Market Correction on Cue, Now What?’:

“The question now is whether or not this is the start of a larger topping scenario and the answer to that question is for now at least, no, not by evidence showing up in our indicators like junk bond (risk on) speculation and sentiment, which was dialed back from heartily over bullish to neutral by the correction of the last couple of weeks.”

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December 24, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Enjoy the Punch Holiday Revelers

Party goers are gathered around the punch bowl as expected after the FOMC’s token move on QE.  Jeff Lacker is jawboning additional tapers in $10b chunks and all seems right, except… the ‘continuum’ (AKA the 100 month EMA on the 30 year bond yield chart).

tyx

Let me ask you Beuller, what happened at the red arrow in 2000?  What happened after the red arrow in 2007?  What happened after the plunge in 2008?  What happened after the red arrow in 2011?  What happened after the most recent bottom in 2012?  The answers are 1) the end of a secular bull market in stocks, 2) the end of the last cyclical bull market in stocks, 3) the birth of the current cyclical bull market in stocks, 4) the end of the big cyclical commodities rally and 5) the launch of this most powerful leg of the cyclical stock bull market.

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December 23, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Closing the 2008 ‘Gap’

A disclaimer:  I am long and/or trading several regular ‘bull stocks’ (as well as short a couple).  Don’t interpret the sober message below as a ‘sell your stocks right now!’ style bearish warning.  Indeed, after an expected choppy start to December I think more bull market mania, errr… rally, could still be ahead.  But it would be just dandy if people would keep their perspective along the way.

From the December 1 edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole (NFTRH 267):

Closing the 2008 ‘Gap’

In 2008 market and economic participants suffered a hard downside ‘gap’ in the prices of their assets and in the levels of their expectations.  The bull market that began in March of 2009 is doing a fine job of closing that gap and fully resetting the herd from the utter fear mode of Q4, 2008 to a 2007 or even 1999 style greed mode today.

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December 2, 2013
NFTRH Interim Updates

Technical Status: Gold, Silver & Much More…

In response to a subscriber’s request, I am pleased to announce the addition of a simple yet helpful new aspect to the NFTRH service that will be of value to subscribers and potential subscribers who do not always have the time or inclination to wade through the  whole detailed NFTRH report each week.

The NFTRH service will now include clear, uncluttered charts (as follows) focused on a daily time frame for strategic ETF’s.  This is an addition (at no extra charge) to the already well rounded service that includes the detailed weekend letter and interim email/website updates during the week.

We now provide handy and unbiased short to intermediate technical signals for gold (GLD), silver (SLV), gold stocks (GDX), silver stocks (SIL), commodities (DBC), broad US markets (SPY),  Europe (EZU), emerging markets (EEM) and China (FXI).  ETF content is subject to change as their strategic value changes.

This singular aspect of the new NFTRH represents a clearly defined focus on my most basic management tool and capability, i.e. nominal technical analysis simply portrayed with a clear and concise message that is free of detailed theoretical and opinion content.

In the interest of simplicity there will be little talk of support, resistance, volume and measured objectives in this segment of the service.  In short, all we want to know with these charts is ‘are they on bull, bear or neutral signals?’  Very mechanical, very unbiased.

On to our first (complimentary) daily technical report…

gld

GLD is on a bear signal with MACD triggered down, below zero and price below a short term downtrend line and the 50 day moving averages.

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September 30, 2013
NFTRH Interim Updates

NFTRH Update, Precious Metals & ‘Inflation Trade’ After Fed Roll Over

Here is what the US Fed did to the currency it is supposedly a steward of yesterday.  The USD plunged below an important support level.  If this breakdown holds below 80.50, it measures to the mid-70’s.  Enter an ‘inflation trade’, in which we’d look to fan out from the precious metals and include other commodity and global stock items.

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September 19, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Gold: “Taper This”

The media love to get a hold of buzz words and then give them a spin and a life all their own.  Recent examples were the mainstream media’s presentation of ‘Operation Twist’ – which was simply an official yield curve manipulation designed to sanitize and dampen inflationary signals – as an inflationary operation, and the ‘Fiscal Cliff’ drama that sent herds of conventional investors to the sidelines* when they should have been contrarian (and bullish) back in Q4, 2012.

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September 17, 2013
NFTRH Interim Updates / Notable Public Posts

NFTRH Update 9.17.13, Precious Metals – Looking Past FOMC

The world expects the FOMC to update its expectations regarding a tapering of Treasury bond asset purchases tomorrow.  The world thinks that a tapering of these purchases would be bad for gold.

I think a decrease in T bond purchases would be anything from neutral to a potential positive (see post coming later today on the matter).  Regardless, it is time to be looking out beyond FOMC with regard to the precious metals, a most sensitive sector to monetary policy.

So here is a check list of what we want to see in order to press the bull stance.

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September 17, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Change

The destruction culminating in late June in the gold price brought out the usual suspects to school us ever since about why gold is all done as a worthy investment…

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August 16, 2013
Notable Public Posts

Silver, Gold and a Global View

Last week the Silver-Gold ratio (SGR) failed to get with the bear memo as the sector got a hard shakeout, and look what happened.  This week through the ups and…

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August 14, 2013