So the Fed has stated its goal to inflate, but it does not happen in real time. There had to be a reason for the Fed to turn into a dove. That reason was as belabored, an economic turn as reflected in bond yields. Meanwhile, USD is the object of the Fed’s scorn but it is getting a classic flight to liquidity bid post-FOMC, as … Continue reading Doctor Copper’s Bitter Medicine Today
After yet another viewing of a widely followed Twitter muckraker calling out Jerome Powell with righteous sounding outrage and indignation (and getting the troops all riled up with likes and re-tweets) I hereby bore you to death with reality. Jerome Powell was very stern in September, October and November as the perma-bulls begged and Trump bullied. Now the goddamn perma-bears are bitching and moaning because … Continue reading Just Another Boring Post About the 2yr Yield
No, the 2 year yield decided. There is a guy blabbing on and on about “why do we have such a dovish Fed?” with such a good economy. These guys in bow ties always seem to be the most annoying; and this one just won’t stop it. I had to turn him off in order to finish this post. Jesus, he was drilling holes in … Continue reading The Fed Decides!
You partying? Wayne? You? Well, after expecting a bounce for an annoyingly long while the fledgling thing we had going before Mr. Powell’s jawbone was finally rammed home today. A world full of endorphin releasing Waynes and Garths are in full sentiment relief mode. Perfect. But, this… There has definitely been some short-term over bearish sentiment buildup that needed to be addressed and so the … Continue reading Garth!
A well thought out piece by Biiwii.com‘s newest author, Trey Reik. Brinkmanship This senior portfolio manager at Sprott obviously does not need me to inform his well presented analysis, but if you read his work you will see why I am proud to have him aboard as an NFTRH subscriber. Check out the article at the rapidly improving Biiwii. Continuous improvement does not only apply … Continue reading Brinkmanship
Donald Trump whines, throws tantrums and soils himself over the Fed’s persistent (and correct) course of tightening on the Fed Funds rate (FFR). But this chart states that the Fed is in no imminent danger of an overshoot. The implication – if we are going to go by the history of the last two major stock market tops – is that the current stock correction … Continue reading The Fed Has Not Overshot
See this Bloomberg article for a look at the ingredients in a policy stew that looks like it was scraped off the floor of Worst Cooks in America. Click the headline for the article. Federal Reserve policy makers seem to be working at cross purposes. In laying out plans to ease some constraints imposed on banks after the financial crisis, the Fed is moving to … Continue reading A Fiscal/Monetary Mole Stew
Some messages from bonds this week, and mercifully no mention of the Amigos even though 2 of them are implied below. :-) 2s and 10s are accelerating the uptrend and breaking the downtrend, respectively. That continues to paint a declining yield curve, much to the chagrin of the risk ‘off’ players laying in wait. Because I always love colorful big pictures, here’s the yield curve’s … Continue reading Bond Market Views & Indicators for FOMC Week
Sometimes I look at individual stocks and ask myself something like this, using Intel as the current example: ‘how, if the market is going to go bearish [in Q4] can Intel be targeting 40 (and 44, on a longer-term chart)?’ The answer is of course that ‘there are no absolutes sir, so your Q4 market projections could be wrong’. These are the financial markets with … Continue reading Intel, SOX and the Prospect of an Upside Acceleration, Blow Off
So these people are sitting around this table today. This is so important that the CME Group keeps a countdown going by which we can wait with baited breath. They actually have something useful too, which is the Fed Funds probabilities tool, based on FFR futures contracts. For September there will be no rate hike says this gauge and a whopping 98% of FFR traders. … Continue reading FOMC T-Minus 1 Day; NFTRH’s One and Only FOMC Post
Not enough inflation. That’s what the Fed is saying yet again. FOMC Statement “Inflation has continued to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective, partly reflecting earlier declines in energy prices and in prices of non-energy imports. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; most survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance, in recent months” The problem is, that like … Continue reading FOMC: Not Enough Inflation, Folks
