Weak USD, strong EM debt… logical and expected From the December 14th NFTRH Trade Log… Here’s the daily chart, which includes dividends. A chart without divies also shows a notable move. NFTRH is far from a gold stock obsessive. While I am as bullish as anybody on the gold stock sector (but for the right reasons, unlike perma-bulls out there) this is not a newsletter … Continue reading EM debt made its move
I have found myself writing the phrase “trade war distortions” on multiple occasions because I personally cannot see how anyone can quantify the effects of the Trump/China standoff, economically. In NFTRH we have tracked the crash in the Baltic Dry global shipping cost index as a negative divergence to global markets and commodities since Q4 2018. In a couple of posts on Monday we noted … Continue reading Trade War Distortions?
See Kevin Muir‘s… Emerging Market Contagion I am far from a currency expert and so reading this article helped put some definition to the hazy thoughts I’ve had about EM and USD’s effects on them. When the US got themselves into problems in 2008, they flooded the world with liquidity. Instead of saying “no thanks – we have seen this movie before”, emerging markets gulped … Continue reading Macro Tourist w/ a Nice Write Up About EM & USD
I have no position in anything even remotely resembling EM right now, but I thought this daily chart of EEM was pretty interesting. EM’s hope would be a USD pullback, as it was a featured member of the inflation trade. But even if Uncle Buck takes a rest, it’s no guarantee for the EMs. This chart is bearish until it proves otherwise, which it obviously … Continue reading Key Juncture for EM
The title is purposely left vague for public viewing. With all due respect for my often-repeated refrain that targets are not stop signs, I thought it would be appropriate to highlight the EMs as a potential shorting opportunity because of the combo of EM at target and my current view that the US dollar will find support for a vigorous and extended bounce, at least. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Emerging Markets at Target…
Again, free site readers please take no offense. It’s a dual subscriber update/NFTRH promo. I simply do not think that my actual buys and sells are worth messing up subscribers’ concentration in an already shall we say, dynamic market. On June 23 we had a highlight on Emerging Markets Income before doing another one on Emerging Market equities on July 13. Both were well timed. … Continue reading NFTRH+ (public) Emerging Income (TEI) Sold
Welcome to yet another new look for nftrh.com. I like the crisp, clean look of the thing and hope you do too. I actually changed the theme because images simply were not doing what I wanted them to do with the old style. Now they are doing exactly what I want and the coolness of the site (in my opinion, anyway) is a bonus. Moving … Continue reading Emerging & Asia Bull Markets?
This ‘+’ update is sent to the entire subscriber base as it is a macro related subject that is reviewed each week in NFTRH. FYI, another + update (on DBA) was posted (and emailed to opted in subscribers) earlier this morning.
We have been noting the potential Inverted Head & Shoulders on $MSEMF for many weeks now in NFTRH. Using the EEM iShares, let’s dial it in.
We have been talking about more dynamic items like the Semi equipment stocks lately, but here is another subject that may have a place in a well rounded portfolio. The two global income funds I have used in the past are the Templeton funds GIM (Global income) and TEI (Emerging Markets income). If the US dollar follows through on its currently bearish bias, these funds could not only provide a dividend, but also net asset value gains.
I created the title and then had a flashback to Spy vs. Spy… :-)
Anyway, here are some daily charts of other items vs. SPY. I am getting nudged in the direction of ‘inflation trade’ and as part of that I might need to concede that the US stock market may not go the way of the bears with inflation in the system, post-Goldilocks. Several of my long positions are in alignment with a potential ‘inflation trade’, including US manufacturing/exporters. I still hold SPY short. Ouch, but it’s more than fine; the 2016 out performers are seeing to that.
Here are relevant markets vs. SPY, beginning the EM’s, which we long ago noted were out performing. EEM-SPY is doinking the SMA 200 for the first time today.
A look-ahead to some of the US and global markets and sectors that would benefit from a weaker dollar, which is the theme shaping up on the macro as the Fed backs away from support of the currency and joins the global currency Whack-a-Mole game. Obviously, that which has suffered disproportionately under a strong dollar regime would benefit if/as it weakens.
Continue reading “NFTRH; A ‘Look-Ahead’ at Investments for a Weak Dollar”
As you may know, I have been bearish the Emerging Markets due to the big picture monthly chart breakdown by the MSCI EM index and iShares ETF. But in pulling an EEM/SPY chart I found this bottomy looking thing…
Yesterday we planned out the first short-term target on SPX as the area surrounding 2060, which had been bounce resistance in October and is so again. Let’s expand ‘surrounding 2060’ to 2060 to 2080. If SPX is going to hit the SMA 200 at 2064, why not fill the gap at 2080? That is also an area of lateral overhead resistance. The target for Europe … Continue reading NFTRH; Multi-Market Update (US, Euro & EM Stocks, Gold, Silver, Miners & Crude Oil)
I am not going to pretend to have played this well so far. I have not. Since identifying the bearish pattern on the weekly chart and a target zone to short at 36 I have played Keystone Kop in trying to trade it. I did re-take the position (using EEV) and it is profitable as of now. EEM is dropping below support and the SMA … Continue reading A Bearish Look at the EM’s Using Daily and Weekly Charts
