Trade War Distortions?

I have found myself writing the phrase “trade war distortions” on multiple occasions because I personally cannot see how anyone can quantify the effects of the Trump/China standoff, economically. In NFTRH we have tracked the crash in the Baltic Dry global shipping cost index as a negative divergence to global markets and commodities since Q4 2018. In a couple of posts on Monday we noted … Continue reading Trade War Distortions?

Macro Tourist w/ a Nice Write Up About EM & USD

See Kevin Muir‘s… Emerging Market Contagion I am far from a currency expert and so reading this article helped put some definition to the hazy thoughts I’ve had about EM and USD’s effects on them. When the US got themselves into problems in 2008, they flooded the world with liquidity. Instead of saying “no thanks – we have seen this movie before”, emerging markets gulped … Continue reading Macro Tourist w/ a Nice Write Up About EM & USD

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NFTRH+; Emerging Markets at Target…

The title is purposely left vague for public viewing. With all due respect for my often-repeated refrain that targets are not stop signs, I thought it would be appropriate to highlight the EMs as a potential shorting opportunity because of the combo of EM at target and my current view that the US dollar will find support for a vigorous and extended bounce, at least. … Continue reading NFTRH+; Emerging Markets at Target…

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NFTRH+ (public) Emerging Income (TEI) Sold

Again, free site readers please take no offense.  It’s a dual subscriber update/NFTRH promo.  I simply do not think that my actual buys and sells are worth messing up subscribers’ concentration in an already shall we say, dynamic market. On June 23 we had a highlight on Emerging Markets Income before doing another one on Emerging Market equities on July 13.  Both were well timed. … Continue reading NFTRH+ (public) Emerging Income (TEI) Sold

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NFTRH+; Emerging Markets

This ‘+’ update is sent to the entire subscriber base as it is a macro related subject that is reviewed each week in NFTRH.  FYI, another + update (on DBA) was posted (and emailed to opted in subscribers) earlier this morning.

We have been noting the potential Inverted Head & Shoulders on $MSEMF for many weeks now in NFTRH.  Using the EEM iShares, let’s dial it in.

Continue reading “NFTRH+; Emerging Markets”

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NFTRH+; Emerging Markets ‘Income’

We have been talking about more dynamic items like the Semi equipment stocks lately, but here is another subject that may have a place in a well rounded portfolio.  The two global income funds I have used in the past are the Templeton funds GIM (Global income) and TEI (Emerging Markets income).  If the US dollar follows through on its currently bearish bias, these funds could not only provide a dividend, but also net asset value gains.

Continue reading “NFTRH+; Emerging Markets ‘Income’”

vs. SPY

I created the title and then had a flashback to Spy vs. Spy… :-)


Anyway, here are some daily charts of other items vs. SPY.  I am getting nudged in the direction of ‘inflation trade’ and as part of that I might need to concede that the US stock market may not go the way of the bears with inflation in the system, post-Goldilocks. Several of my long positions are in alignment with a potential ‘inflation trade’, including US manufacturing/exporters.  I still hold SPY short.  Ouch, but it’s more than fine; the 2016 out performers are seeing to that.

Here are relevant markets vs. SPY, beginning the EM’s, which we long ago noted were out performing.  EEM-SPY is doinking the SMA 200 for the first time today.

Continue reading “vs. SPY”


NFTRH; A ‘Look-Ahead’ at Investments for a Weak Dollar

A look-ahead to some of the US and global markets and sectors that would benefit from a weaker dollar, which is the theme shaping up on the macro as the Fed backs away from support of the currency and joins the global currency Whack-a-Mole game.  Obviously, that which has suffered disproportionately under a strong dollar regime would benefit if/as it weakens.

Continue reading “NFTRH; A ‘Look-Ahead’ at Investments for a Weak Dollar”

alice, nftrh

NFTRH; Multi-Market Update (US, Euro & EM Stocks, Gold, Silver, Miners & Crude Oil)

Yesterday we planned out the first short-term target on SPX as the area surrounding 2060, which had been bounce resistance in October and is so again.  Let’s expand ‘surrounding 2060’ to 2060 to 2080.  If SPX is going to hit the SMA 200 at 2064, why not fill the gap at 2080?  That is also an area of lateral overhead resistance. The target for Europe … Continue reading NFTRH; Multi-Market Update (US, Euro & EM Stocks, Gold, Silver, Miners & Crude Oil)

eem weekly chart

A Bearish Look at the EM’s Using Daily and Weekly Charts

I am not going to pretend to have played this well so far.  I have not.  Since identifying the bearish pattern on the weekly chart and a target zone to short at 36 I have played Keystone Kop in trying to trade it.  I did re-take the position (using EEV) and it is profitable as of now.  EEM is dropping below support and the SMA … Continue reading A Bearish Look at the EM’s Using Daily and Weekly Charts