US dollar (DXY) has activated its Inverted H&S, Gold/Silver maintains its uptrend, watch silver going foward… I do not make predictions because I do not pretend to be a guru.* But NFTRH has been tracking what has been an uptrend in the US dollar for all of 2021, keeping us well aware of the potentials being realized from late summer into the fall. A higher … Continue reading US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio
Bearing in mind that we’ve projected 18.90 as the best downside target, here comes target #1 for silver, which as noted in an update on Monday had a nice CoT setup a week ago and likely is becoming very supportive now on a contrarian sentiment basis. 21.23 was the cyclical bull market breakout point, which was the 2016 high. Continue reading NFTRH+; Silver target #1 upcoming
Uncle Buck is making a definitive breakout above resistance after previously holding the neckline to the Inverted H&S. Daily RSI and MACD are aligned for higher levels as well. In a sense it continues to be USD (and the also firm Gold/Silver ratio) vs. long-term yields and inflation expectations. It’s an epic battle and speaking personally, something of a mental whipsaw. Recall that these two … Continue reading NFTRH+; there’s the breakout…
Mainstream financial media bullhorned a golden cross in Bitcoin just before it dropped (of course they did) On September 16th the MSFM touted a Golden Cross for Bitcoin bulls to suck on and I, considering it almost my duty, made fun of them for it. Same shit, different day (and market). It never ends. Oh, and in order to read all about it, you’d have … Continue reading So MSFM, how’s that Bitcoin Golden Cross working out? w/ Bonus chart of HUI
More indicators are triggering to the inflation view Giving the finger to the Fed’s pretense as inflation fighters (taper: ooh, they must mean it) more market signals are tripping inflationary. There are still a couple holdouts and a caveat here or there. But my indicators are coming in line and as they stand now are biased to flipping the bird to the Fed and its … Continue reading Garden variety inflation… or Stag?
These pictures paint the taper-talking Fed as behind the curve, literally and figuratively. Yield Curve: steepening Long-term Treasury yields: rising Inflation expectations: rising Broad Commodity complex: rising (mainly driven by oil & gas) The holdouts are the Silver/Gold ratio… …and the TSX-V index. If/when those two join in we may have a trigger to a more widespread and obvious inflation trade. Continue reading NFTRH+; inflation signals
Well, USD never did give up the 2021 rally despite the re-pumping inflation trades. It is apparently getting the Fed taper bid (Lael Brainard is talking it up) and taking the rise in Treasury yields as supportive. Here is Uncle Buck making a new try to take out the previous cycle highs. The “dollar collapse” cult must be beside itself. We however, will not be … Continue reading NFTRH+; 2 Horsemen
Silver is more inflation sensitive than gold. Post-FOMC macro has pivoted toward the inflation view as noted in NFTRH (with a couple contrary caveats still in play). Thus, it would be logical for silver to have a better Commitments of Traders structure than gold; and it does. Here we see the price decline in silver attended by a now constructive alignment of the large specs … Continue reading NFTRH+; a nice CoT setup perhaps bolstered by the macro
From NFTRH 674… If somebody can tell me how to effectively play Lumber I’d like to do so. A nice bottoming pattern taking shape here. Also an interesting forward macro indicator. With the understanding that I am not a stock analyst by profession and do not spend the time analyzing them that a professional analyst would, a little research showed that the Lumber/Timber ETFs are … Continue reading NFTRH+; regarding Lumber
Franco Nevada stock is dropping toward the 62% Fib retrace level As the tax loss selling Olympics appears on the horizon gold stock (with a little diversity into energy and PGM) leader FNV is diving toward the 62% Fib retrace level and below that, support at 124 (+/-). Reference the April 1st post: Franco Nevada Would Lead Them. A personal buy near the lows yielded … Continue reading Gold stock leader Franco Nevada (FNV) burrowing toward a low?
The Semiconductor sector appears to be re-taking leadership The broad Semiconductor sector is hinting to take back its leadership over big Tech and possibly the broad SPX as well on the daily chart view. While a look inside the sector’s internals shows that two premier Semi Equipment companies, Applied Materials and Lam Research are constructive and not yet actionable with respect to leadership by companies … Continue reading Semiconductor sector leadership updated
While including some personal editorial comments about gold and the precious metals sector #674 does all the real work with respect to the whole macro shootin’ match. I have a high confidence level that we’ll be on the right side of things when the time is right. Indeed, the macro actually ended last week with signaling in the inflationary direction, but with a few important … Continue reading NFTRH 674, out now
[edit] Upon completing the article I realized that no forward look at the economy and financial markets from an inflationary/deflationary point of view would be complete without consideration of the Yield Curve. Here is its status at the time of writing. It is making a steepening hint this week along with the rise in bond yields. That signaling is inflationary, at least for now. But in … Continue reading When the tight economic rope slackens [w/ edit]
Just an FYI update that HUI has hit 230 this morning, which was the first in the target chain: 230 > 212 > 185 > anything above the 2020 crash low Here is the busy chart we used to manage the failure at resistance (325) and subsequent decline (with downside targets). It shows the first two targets, including the 62% Fib retrace of the rally … Continue reading NFTRH+; not for nuthin’ but a certain index is hitting target #1 today
