Market psychology is a funny thing. I sold TWTR at a (then) high, thinking I was smart. It then immediately dropped and I was even smarter. Glad. Then TWTR gapped up and I was less glad but still not sad. But on a terrible market day yesterday as I watched TWTR hit a new high I was sad. How could I have picked such a … Continue reading Twitter; a Sad-to-Glad Whipsaw in 2 Days
After a well deserved correction of nearly 3 months the gold stock sector is still flashing positive signs beneath the surface, as the correction matures The correction that began in August amid the ‘Buffett Buys a Gold Stock!‘ tout has now ground on for nearly 3 months. As noted in the NFTRH 626 Opening Notes segment: “Thus far the correction in gold, silver and the … Continue reading Gold Miners: Beautiful Pictures
I am talking my book because I just increased my position on this drop. It’s not a recommendation, as per all NFTRH+ updates. It is however, a technical view of a setup on another quality but richly valued stock that the market is addressing this week. The post-earnings drop has brought FTNT back to finally fill its May gap at a lateral support level. I … Continue reading NFTRH+; This stock beats on earnings (again), drops hard, fills gap
In yesterday’s post featuring a weekly chart of the Dow (and an oh so distinguished gentleman) we noted among other things a double top that has formed. Let’s dial that in to a daily chart of the S&P 500 and use Rich Ross’s view as a starting point. The Stock Market Is Tanking. Here’s How Low It Could Go. I met Rich a decade ago … Continue reading Man Stares at Chart, Advises SPX 3200 Must Hold
I have an ongoing gag (to keep myself, if no one else, entertained) where the distinguished Clark Gable is inserted into commentary about the old fashioned indexes known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Dow Jones Transportation Average. He celebrates good weeks at Happy Hour and drowns his sorrows at bad weeks just the same. The joke started when I just could not … Continue reading The Distinguished Gentleman of US Indexes
[edit] Please excuse the chart, which does not agree with what I’ve written. In my haste I did not adjust to the fact that the SMA 200 has risen to the 38% Fib level from the 50%. I still see 280 followed by 260 as the better targets. But I wanted to clear up any confusion. Daily HUI shows that minor support at 300 is … Continue reading NFTRH; Nearing 1st (but not best) HUI Target; Daily, Weekly & Monthly Charts [w/ edit]
Picture = 1000 words about how good this will be for the gold stock sector if the recovery move in this ratio is real. And I have little reason to believe it is not real. Patience may be needed as the inflationist and over-committed bugs do their traditional selling. Gold stocks often drop while the macro funda improve. That’s what’s happening today. Continue reading NFTRH+; Exactly What We Want to See
This chart was included in NFTRH 626 not to make a point, but to put visual proof to a point we’ve been making since the monetary policy response to the COVID-crash. What thing looks like the (inverse of) the other thing? Well, below is a chart of Uncle Buck live this morning. The first bounce target was 94.65, which was put in the books before … Continue reading Make Way for Uncle Buck
Conventional and traditional market analysis talks about investing as if it is a logical or normal discipline; as if there is a right way or wrong way to do it successfully. Invest for the long-term letting your adviser worry about the details, as if there is continuum in play that will… continue. That’s conventional stuff. My version of unconventional analysis accepts that it’s a desperately … Continue reading Inflation or Liquidation?
Doc’s advice is not to let your anxiety reach unhealthy levels. Doc says “take a deep breath, relax”. That’s what Doc says today. He’s been known to flip prescriptions, however. So keep an eye on this quack for confirmation or negation of the cyclical inflation/reflation trades. For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth … Continue reading Doctor Copper: “Don’t Panic, Reflation Traders”
Today’s market turmoil is keeping the Gold/SPX ratio not only intact but in a modest bounce. If it re-takes the SMA 200 we will firm up quite a bit on the gold stock macro/funda case and view the correction as a significant buying opportunity. So THING 1 has been for Gold/SPX not to break down. THING 2 would be to register technical buy levels for … Continue reading NFTRH+; a Key Indicator Holds its Ground
I finished a little earlier than usual, which is great! Because now I get to go out and deal with the leave storm we get in this yard every year. Seriously, it’s absurd. One day I’ll have to break down and hire a crew to do it. Or better yet, move to a more pastoral setting. Meanwhile, the screenshot does its usual scratch of the … Continue reading NFTRH 626, Out Now
I don’t mind the blemish. It wasn’t my favorite song to play when we used to get together, but I like it. I really do need to find another band at some point. This one got busted by health issues, relocation and probably just having run its course. Blemish- Chris: Bass, Vocal, Jim: Lead Guitar, Gary: Rhythm Guitar, Scott: Drums Continue reading Blemish
Pardon the after hours post, but maybe it’s for the best as I bought this stock at the close (after being out most of the day) and it was stumbled upon because I was researching SaaS and Cloud security and found OKTA to be ridiculously valued, Forgerock to be not yet public, SUMO to be still in its post-IPO smack down. On that stream of … Continue reading NFTRH+; Daily & Weekly Charts of a Software Company That Just Popped Into View
