Here is the thing everyone is talking about; a spike in long-term yields to the highest point yet. This chart – if you want to apply chart patterns to interest rates – targets 3.5%.
I certainly don’t want to downplay my own indicator, but the Continuum ™ (or Amigo #2) is only breaking the limiter in-month, which it did several times along the continuum of declining yields. Most recently it did this in early 2011. That was when we had all manner of inflationary hysteria and Bill Gross taking his famous and ultimately ill-fated short against the long bond (pro the yield).
October will be a long month. Let’s try to have some balance, shall we? If this thing breaks out and stays out, we’re going to have a really different animal on our hands than we’ve had for decades. If it fails yet again well, you know…
As a side note, the Yield Curve now steps forward in importance as well. That’s Amigo #3. Well, #1 is pretty important too. He’s SPX/Gold. Macro signals to the fore as we define what is ahead. I haven’t done the Amigos in a while so maybe we’ll update them this week in light of the activity in long yields.
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