Yields & Macro Status

Last week these moderators were included in a post about the breakout in long-term yields and its implications… “This week, assuming it is confirmed by remaining active through the FOMC next week, we got a short-term signal in Treasury bond yields that starts the clock ticking on a big macro decision point…” “[edit] It’s worth noting that if the breakouts in yields and TIP/IEF should … Continue reading Yields & Macro Status


NFTRH; Long-term Interest Rate Status

This morning in pre-market the 10yr US Treasury Note it testing its breakdown at the blue dot on the chart. And the 10yr yield is testing the top of its bullish pattern per the blue dot. This test will have implications for only everything. Functionally, if the pattern holds I’d expect the stock market to hold together but favor the items that benefit from inflation/rising … Continue reading NFTRH; Long-term Interest Rate Status

NFTRH 471 Out Now

It added a companion macro signal in waiting to go with the 10 & 30 year yield continuum limiters in order to one day signal a change in the macro. Lots more, and it’s out now. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas; or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. You … Continue reading NFTRH 471 Out Now

Upwards at 45°

Okay I got sidetracked in the middle of NFTRH 471. While describing the trajectory of the ACWI World Index I wrote “upwards at 45 degrees”. So of course I had to go pull the Julian Cope video and listen to one of my favorite songs. What I like about it is that the song actually seems to just keep moving up… with no choruses, bridges … Continue reading Upwards at 45°


NFTRH; Gold Sector

Well, I think the red headed step child has been beaten enough, don’t you? Pardon the insensitive old fashioned expression, but the point is that the precious metals have been clobbered as the stock market has experienced increasing bullishness in price, momentum and sentiment. All with 2 months left in the Q4 window that I’d anticipated a change (i.e. top in the market, which looks … Continue reading NFTRH; Gold Sector

Uncle Buck’s Status

Still in the bottoming pattern, but now making a move on the neckline. By now the machines have probably picked up on this and they are talking to each other. Planning our demise or otherwise. All I know is that I am still long a boat load of Uncle Buck. Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for an in-depth weekly market report, interim updates and NFTRH+ chart … Continue reading Uncle Buck’s Status


NFTRH; Relative Sectors Amid Yield Backdrop

As we wait to see if yesterday’s interest rate signal is confirmed as the beginning of the countdown to the 10yr & 30yr limit points (2.9% +/- & 3.3% +/-, respectively) I’d like to update how the US sectors are doing. But first a couple of notes… If yields close the week in breakout mode per the charts in yesterday’s public post, it would go … Continue reading NFTRH; Relative Sectors Amid Yield Backdrop


NFTRH; Making Plans

Folks, as a portfolio balancer things are becoming clearer, assuming the move up in interest rates is real today (see this post showing the details). As a trader, things continue slowly dripping south for my portfolios. Considering the very high risk market, I am taking that as a message, raising cash, protecting the remaining profits (significantly smaller than 3 weeks ago) and laying in wait … Continue reading NFTRH; Making Plans

Treasury Yields: Here We Go, Folks

If this morning’s break above resistance is real you’ll need to have your thinking caps on in the coming weeks. It’s about to get really noisy out there. If the move is real, perceptions are going to firm and the 10yr and 30yr yields are going to go for their big picture limiters. 10yr daily… pattern target 2.8%. 10yr monthly… limitation at 2.9%. 30yr daily… … Continue reading Treasury Yields: Here We Go, Folks