Folks, as a portfolio balancer things are becoming clearer, assuming the move up in interest rates is real today (see this post showing the details). As a trader, things continue slowly dripping south for my portfolios. Considering the very high risk market, I am taking that as a message, raising cash, protecting the remaining profits (significantly smaller than 3 weeks ago) and laying in wait for the big macro plan to engage.
Anything can be sold, including the UUP (USD long) positions, which are profitable but not yet activated for the 96-97 (USD) target. I’d like to hold on to them but with significantly fewer long positions to protect, I am not really sure of the point. It can help against the gold sector, but I’ve hedged there anyway. The USD view is not long-term positive, after all. Holding for now, but making the point again that anything can be for sale.
As for the gold sector, I am trying to stay disciplined with a time frame out to year-end. But I’ve not sold the miners I hold (in fact, I added KLDX this morning after Fred informed me that he saw “nothing wrong” with their earnings, to have warranted such a deep drop).
But the miners are likely to grind and at last check HUI is at 190, a full 5 points below the key 195-200 support area. I remain hedged on the sector and very patient.
I had thought that a breakout in yields (toward the big picture limiters) could be attended by a final blow off in stocks and that may well be the case (today could well be another breather). But for me, now it is time to play that (or not) using index/sector ETFs as a nimble trader, and not individual stocks, which are subject to their own dynamics. Key word is “play” because the next real trade is in my opinion, the yield curve steepener and the limiter gateways on the 10 & 30 year yields.
Speaking personally, it is time for much more conservative and nimble management.