t-bill yields and inflation expectations

What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?

The T-bill yield continues to ramp upward as inflation expectations pull back The 3 month T-bill yield (green) had been one of our guides demanding that the Fed get its ass in gear and get on the rate hike regimen it is now on. Evidently, it still is demanding. Quite demanding, actually. Yet the ETF that tries to represent inflation expectations is in full retreat … Continue reading What does the T-bill see that the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF does not?

Fed Jawbones mean business [w/ edit]

3 month T-bill yield is demanding the Fed raise the Funds rate And the Fed is listening. [edit] After this post was published another Hawkish jawbone came in the form of James Bullard and a call for a larger rate hike in March. CME Group Fed Futures traders quickly adjusted their expectations to a .5% March hike at the behest of the Bullard jawbone. The … Continue reading Fed Jawbones mean business [w/ edit]

2yr Yield & 3 Mo. T-Bill Yield Report ‘Still Bullish’

In the previous post we illustrated a measure of extreme stock market over valuation in comparing the dividend yield of the S&P 500 to that of the 10yr Treasury Note. That is a bearish fundamental condition, but with no sense of timing. A still-bullish macro-technical (did I just invent a term?) condition is that the 3 month Treasury Bill yield (a proxy for the Fed … Continue reading 2yr Yield & 3 Mo. T-Bill Yield Report ‘Still Bullish’

Look at This Cash Equivalent Rocket Ship (SHV)

Wow, what a stock! Okay, wait a minute; it’s a cash equivalent in the form of very short-term Treasury Bills, and has only risen from 109.80 to 110.37.  But it’s regarded as the safest cash and it will track the Fed’s rate hikes in 2017 and beyond, if applicable. Here are the Fed Funds futures expectations per (CME Group).  The futures wise guys largely expect … Continue reading Look at This Cash Equivalent Rocket Ship (SHV)