The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

As the Fed fights the last war (on inflation) the result is a rare thing; a bear market haven called cash, paying increasing income Safety Vehicles Gold: For long-term financial security. Real gold, not ETFs, not allocated gold trusts that you can never actually possess (if you, like me, are not spectacularly wealthy) and certainly not gold mining equities.* Just gold. It’s so simple as … Continue reading The Fed is forced to pay you to stay safe

A Great Day in the Market! So What?

This is one of those posts that started out as a regular blurb and then it just wouldn’t stop talking, rambling on, getting a little preachy here, promotional there and ultimately, maybe useful to some people too. Sometimes you’ve just gotta write ’em and send ’em out into the world. Today was my best trading day of the year (although I didn’t actually make a … Continue reading A Great Day in the Market! So What?

A Risk Manager Continues Speaking…

[edit]  This from a long-time NFTRH subscriber… “Based on my more than 40 years experience as a portfolio manager and financial adviser I can only say: how right you are!” In financial markets risk management is vitally important, especially when people are happily going along, full applied to a given doctrine, having success and being affirmed time after time.  When in that mode, peoples’ minds … Continue reading A Risk Manager Continues Speaking…

NFTRH; Junk-Quality Credit Spreads

Junk bond fund HYG is breaking below the 50 and 200 day moving averages. HYG in relation to long-term Treasury bonds never did break above the moving averages and you will recall by our ongoing weekly charts in NFTRH, has remained a bearish divergence to the US stock market. Junk bonds in relation to Investment Grade bonds is doing something similar on both the weekly … Continue reading NFTRH; Junk-Quality Credit Spreads

Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity

What Has Been

A solid 2.5 years of risk management (to varying degrees) has been required of precious metals investors.  It was most intensely required after the announcement of QE3, when the net commercial short position in silver began a relentless march toward a very bearish alignment in late 2012 and then the HUI Gold Bugs index lost an important support level at around 460.  Here is the chart of silver with a heavy commercial net short position from NFTRH 215, dated 12.2.12:

Continue reading “Precious Metals: Risk Management to Opportunity”

Technical Analysis – Put Egos Aside & Respect the Charts

Case-based ‘White Paper’ on the importance of unbiased TA: I would like to repeat the idea that it is best to subordinate yourself to markets at all times.  To put your ego aside or at least check it daily to make sure it is not leading you astray.  The gold bug ego for example, hardened by a solid decade-plus of relentless bull market is in … Continue reading Technical Analysis – Put Egos Aside & Respect the Charts