gold mining sector fundamentals

Hoye, oh boy! The proper gold stock sector fundamentals

Bob Hoye presents a look at the proper – as opposed to imagined by legions of anti-dollar, inflationist gold bugs – gold stock sector fundamentals You’ve heard me go on about it for years upon years. Here is Bob Hoye’s version of gold stock sector fundamentals. If the macro goes over a cliff in 2023 as the inflated (and multiple times reinflated) bubble really starts … Continue reading Hoye, oh boy! The proper gold stock sector fundamentals

As inflation signals fade, the gold mining sector outperforms

The gold mining sector is doing what it should do amid fading inflation If you have tuned out inflationist gold bugs since mid-2020 you are now in position to capitalize, unlike scores of inflation bugs who’d already bought (and likely sold into tax loss season, 2022). Readers of nftrh.com have seen this space write many times how gold is not about inflation. At least not … Continue reading As inflation signals fade, the gold mining sector outperforms

IKN on Anger and the “State of the Mining Industry”

So February comes around (with HUI at a long-held NFTRH target by the way) and I complain about the golden bull horns mustering the troops onto the Au 3000 Express and then recap with gold sentiment lesson #3000. I become nonplussed when those clowns jump to the front of a parade that is already in full march to the promised land and try to promote … Continue reading IKN on Anger and the “State of the Mining Industry”

TLT Up, TIP Up, TIP/TLT Down, Inflation Expectations Down, Gold Mining Funda Up

Wacky title aside, with nominal bonds and TIP bonds each rising and the TIP/TLT ratio still dropping, the indication is of course declining inflation expectations (and a lurch toward risk ‘off’). Many gold bugs will boo the waning of inflation expectations, but this gold bug will, well, not cheer it because I don’t cheer anything in this casino… but let’s just say this gold bug … Continue reading TLT Up, TIP Up, TIP/TLT Down, Inflation Expectations Down, Gold Mining Funda Up

vs. SPY

I created the title and then had a flashback to Spy vs. Spy… :-)

spyvspy

Anyway, here are some daily charts of other items vs. SPY.  I am getting nudged in the direction of ‘inflation trade’ and as part of that I might need to concede that the US stock market may not go the way of the bears with inflation in the system, post-Goldilocks. Several of my long positions are in alignment with a potential ‘inflation trade’, including US manufacturing/exporters.  I still hold SPY short.  Ouch, but it’s more than fine; the 2016 out performers are seeing to that.

Here are relevant markets vs. SPY, beginning the EM’s, which we long ago noted were out performing.  EEM-SPY is doinking the SMA 200 for the first time today.

Continue reading “vs. SPY”

2016 Gold Headline Extravaganza in Full Swing

With the monetary metal popping by a couple hundred bucks an ounce in 2016 people are coming out of the woodwork to advise us about its vast upside and on the other side of the spectrum, its dangers.  I have done a lot of bitching and moaning about gold’s promoters and bashers alike, because they seem to use similar sets of incorrect assumptions from which to extend their theses.  Let’s focus on one of the negative articles; in this case a negative piece on gold mining.

I think I am going to do this on a semi regular basis going forward, with both bullish and bearish articles that I think are not giving people a straight scoop (as I see it, anyway).  For some reason gold stirs emotions far beyond the average asset.  There is ideology, religion, politics and flat out misunderstanding in the worst of gold analysis.  Gold mining can be even more misunderstood due to the sector’s unique counter-cyclical dynamics.

Gold Equities Are Not Good Long-term Investments  –Seeking Alpha

I agree wholeheartedly with the title.

Continue reading “2016 Gold Headline Extravaganza in Full Swing”

More on Gold Mining

Since it seems to be the time to start writing more about the miners after years on the out cycle, with only the eternally bullish pompom squad micro managing the sector… From Mining Weekly: SocGen says miners’ output costs have dropped more than expected Miners’ output costs have dropped more than industry consensus due to lower energy prices and weak emerging market currencies, a report … Continue reading More on Gold Mining

Gold Mining is Counter Cyclical

The following is the opening segment of this week’s Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 276:

Somewhere along the road from the 2000 bottom in gold stocks to the 2008 flame out of inflationary hysteria, the gold stock sector went from counter cyclical first mover to ‘inflation trade’ also ran.  Gold stocks put in a secular bear market bottom in 2000 just as the US and many global economies were topping out.

Then came the era that NFTRH has labeled ‘Inflation onDemand’ (IoD).  The economy was successfully* inflated by Alan Greenspan early in the decade as easy monetary policy fomented an epic credit bubble, which took over and did the heavy lifting for a cyclical bull market and buoyant economy that terminated hard in 2007/2008.

During this time of IoD ‘inflation bulls’ and commodity bulls who had all the answers for a newly inflation-phobic public emerged and took center stage.  Misperceptions were formed, cemented and driven home.  Nowhere were the misperceptions more intensely and dangerously embedded than the gold stock sector, which at its core is different than most commodity sectors and indeed, most stock sectors.  Introducing another one of our ‘busy’ charts to illustrate…

hui.mo

Okay, article over… the chart says it all.  No more words necessary!  :-)

The chart is a confusing jumble you say?  Okay then, let’s take it point by point.

Continue reading “Gold Mining is Counter Cyclical”