[edit] the post started as a simple thing and ended after getting way too involved. so much the better... An update of the situation on the Banks, the anti-Banks (gold)…
It is more important than usual to be fine tuned on exactly why the gold sector, rising as it is with the general 'anti-USD' trade, is different. We go into…
There are many more details and indicators that inform well balanced ongoing analysis, but the three scenarios below are the general options before us. Excerpted from this week's edition of…
I got in late last night from band practice and there was this message in my inbox. I never remember that it is April Fools day on 4/1 and almost…
What I mean by "Bounce" is not necessarily in the stock market, which is a candidate for one. But in the inflation story. Per the post on T bonds and…
The 10 to 5 to 2 year spread is indicative of market upset, obviously. Here is the up to the minute view of 30 year vs. 5 year yields, with…
At the prodding of an NFTRH subscriber who was combing through old issues, I went back and read NFTRH 7, from November of 2008 and was struck by how things…
A good report that departs from some of the nuts and bolts (so much so that I forgot to include the usual currency segment, which we have frankly had nailed…
First, for all you right minded wording detectives out there, you are absolutely right... inflation is not rising prices and deflation is not dropping prices. Also, deflation is not two…
As crude oil continues down today we are presented with a perfect opportunity to review why gold mining fundamentals can IMPROVE in a rising US dollar atmosphere. So many people run the equation through their heads: USD Strong = Run Away!
No matter the debates over inflation vs. deflation, increasing employment vs. sound monetary policy or systemic health vs. fragility (and whatever else is flying around in Jackson Hole this week), the CPI marches onward and upward. That is the system and it is predicated on creating enough money out of thin air while inflation signals are (somehow) held at bay.
The Straw Man* in this argument lives in the idea that inflation is not always destructive, that inflation can be used for good and honed, massaged and targeted just right to achieve positive ends to defeat the curse of deflation that is surely just around the next corner. Currently, the Straw Man is supported by the reality of the moment, which includes long-term Treasury yields remaining in their long-term secular down trend.
Indeed, right here at this very site was displayed much doubt about the promotion having to do with the “Great Rotation” out of bonds and into stocks (i.e. that the yield would break the red dotted EMA 100 this time). We noted it right at that last red arrow on the Continuum© below. Now, with commodity indexes right at critical support and precious metals not far from their own, the time is now if a match is going to be put to that dry old Straw Man and silver is going to out perform gold, inflation expectations barometers (TIPS vs. unprotected T bonds) are going to turn up and the Continuum is going to find support.
Here is the chart we have been using in NFTRH, showing inflation protected T bond fund TIP vs. regular T bond fund TLT. This ratio has been bottoming for months…
We have used the 'continuum' (monthly chart of the 30 year yield) for years now to define tops in inflation expectations (red arrows at or around the EMA 100) and…
Risk is OFF [ed: 'Risk Off' might seem obvious this morning, but NFTRH has been highlighting acute risk in the US stock market since leading indicators - including a sentiment…