CRB/Gold ratio will tell about inflation
The CRB/Gold ratio rose impulsively as it should have during a cyclical inflation problem that got out of the Fed's hands As noted in the previous post, the SPX/Gold ratio…
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June 21, 2023
Neat little bear flag in DBC; inflation trades need not apply
This is a Goldilocks rally, not an 'inflation trades' (or cyclical) rally Today is an 'FOMC comment-free' day for me, as there is nothing surprising or new going on there…
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March 22, 2023
CRB index: almost too perfect
The CRB index tentatively turned down where it should have I am short commodities (DBC) as my only current short position. Hence, I have an interest in this oh so…
October 12, 2022
Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200
Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play…
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September 7, 2022
As global shipping costs plunge
Global shipping prices are dropping while commodities and inflation expectations remain aloft When viewed in the context of history, it's not something that makes sense right now. Global shipping costs…
August 16, 2022
NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals
On March 21 we had an update noting that the TSX-V (CDNX) had tentatively taken out initial resistance (now support along with the SMA 50 at 856). Today's attempt at…
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April 1, 2022
Commodity consolidation
Commodity tracker DBC is in a symmetrical triangle Largely driven by its crude oil component, CRB tracker DBC's daily chart is taking the form of a symmetrical triangle, which is…
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March 31, 2022
Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what?
War making and its likely after effects driving commodities So now it is not only the inflation that the Fed and other CBs created in 2020. It is not only…
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March 2, 2022
CRB index: Upside target (finally) in, gold is better
CRB commodity index hits target Not that it needs to stop here and not that I knew a tragic humanitarian event was going to instigate the final drive to 270+,…
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February 24, 2022
NFTRH+; Almost too perfect
Watching two elements of the macro markets we note that they are playing ball with each other nicely. As the 30yr yield looks upward to 2.5% to 2.7%... ...its big…
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February 10, 2022
SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike
Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two…
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January 26, 2022
![Read more about the article The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]](https://i0.wp.com/nftrh.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/cake.png?fit=547%2C345&ssl=1)
The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes... A Cynical Fed is…
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January 5, 2022
As FOMC rides off into the sunset…
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to flash negative As FOMC and related noise fade away we are left as we were before the negative market action that attended the event…
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December 17, 2021
Fed Funds Rate, CRB & 2yr yield; a macro picture
2-year Treasury yield indicates rising Fed Funds to come The link between commodities and Fed policy has been hit or miss (at best). However, when you add in the 2…
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December 15, 2021