CRB index: almost too perfect

The CRB index tentatively turned down where it should have I am short commodities (DBC) as my only current short position. Hence, I have an interest in this oh so logical pullback from the 200 day moving average. It’s why I was irked when OPEC manip’d the oil market recently. Oil being a CRB driver and all. I am currently sporting a manageable paper loss … Continue reading CRB index: almost too perfect

Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200

As global shipping costs plunge

Global shipping prices are dropping while commodities and inflation expectations remain aloft When viewed in the context of history, it’s not something that makes sense right  now. Global shipping costs – with commodities like crude oil a major component of the shipped product – are dropping, which implies demand has dropped. Yet commodities and inflation expectations really have not caught on yet, other than a … Continue reading As global shipping costs plunge

NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals

On March 21 we had an update noting that the TSX-V (CDNX) had tentatively taken out initial resistance (now support along with the SMA 50 at 856). Today’s attempt at the down-trending SMA 200 is a reasonable objective off of that resistance breakout. But until some kind of divergence vs. the senior TSX comes in I want to have some patience with my speculative ‘resources’ … Continue reading NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals

Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what?

War making and its likely after effects driving commodities So now it is not only the inflation that the Fed and other CBs created in 2020. It is not only the pandemic related supply constraints (vs. inelastic demand). It is also the upheaval in Eastern Europe and around the world driving the commodity bus. CRB index, driven by crude oil, assertively and definitively boinked the … Continue reading Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what?

SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike

Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

indicators

As FOMC rides off into the sunset…

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to flash negative As FOMC and related noise fade away we are left as we were before the negative market action that attended the event everybody already knew was coming (taper and Fed Funds rate hike talk). Back on November 11th we noted that the BDI was tanking even as the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF (RINF) was making a new (and … Continue reading As FOMC rides off into the sunset…

indicators

Fed Funds Rate, CRB & 2yr yield; a macro picture

2-year Treasury yield indicates rising Fed Funds to come The link between commodities and Fed policy has been hit or miss (at best). However, when you add in the 2 year yield, AKA the short end of the bond market that is directing the Fed, you can see a better correlation to the Funds Rate. Indeed, in 2013 (which you will recall was the beginning … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate, CRB & 2yr yield; a macro picture

Gold/CRB ratio; where is the risk and where is the reward?

Gold/CRB ratio indicates a positive risk vs. reward for gold over commodities Most of the 2020 risk in Gold/CRB has been bled out over the last year. Sure, the ratio can continue to drop but that thing in 2020 was epic and unsustainable and so, in my opinion, may be this thing in 2021. As a side note and in highly technical terms, move your … Continue reading Gold/CRB ratio; where is the risk and where is the reward?