The CRB index tentatively turned down where it should have I am short commodities (DBC) as my only current short position. Hence, I have an interest in this oh so logical pullback from the 200 day moving average. It’s why I was irked when OPEC manip’d the oil market recently. Oil being a CRB driver and all. I am currently sporting a manageable paper loss … Continue reading CRB index: almost too perfect
Commodities are starting to crack Disclaimer: commodities are notorious for rotation, as if the hedgies, quants and black boxes are playing Whack-a-Mole, roving the landscape rotating to the next play before they leave it high and dry. But here is the CRB tracker DBC doing something pretty notable, don’t you think? Even as DBC has out-performed the broad SPX since July (lower panel) its nominal … Continue reading Commodity tracker dunks below the SMA 200
Global shipping prices are dropping while commodities and inflation expectations remain aloft When viewed in the context of history, it’s not something that makes sense right now. Global shipping costs – with commodities like crude oil a major component of the shipped product – are dropping, which implies demand has dropped. Yet commodities and inflation expectations really have not caught on yet, other than a … Continue reading As global shipping costs plunge
On March 21 we had an update noting that the TSX-V (CDNX) had tentatively taken out initial resistance (now support along with the SMA 50 at 856). Today’s attempt at the down-trending SMA 200 is a reasonable objective off of that resistance breakout. But until some kind of divergence vs. the senior TSX comes in I want to have some patience with my speculative ‘resources’ … Continue reading NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals
Commodity tracker DBC is in a symmetrical triangle Largely driven by its crude oil component, CRB tracker DBC’s daily chart is taking the form of a symmetrical triangle, which is usually thought of as a continuation pattern by ladies who stare at charts. Captain Obvious advises of the previous uptrend and hence, if the sym-tri works as not only the ladies, but also the men … Continue reading Commodity consolidation
War making and its likely after effects driving commodities So now it is not only the inflation that the Fed and other CBs created in 2020. It is not only the pandemic related supply constraints (vs. inelastic demand). It is also the upheaval in Eastern Europe and around the world driving the commodity bus. CRB index, driven by crude oil, assertively and definitively boinked the … Continue reading Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what?
CRB commodity index hits target Not that it needs to stop here and not that I knew a tragic humanitarian event was going to instigate the final drive to 270+, but here we are. CRB index closed yesterday at 268.32 and is up over 3% this morning. So… target in. It’s a target we’ve had on for at least a year now. And it is … Continue reading CRB index: Upside target (finally) in, gold is better
Watching two elements of the macro markets we note that they are playing ball with each other nicely. As the 30yr yield looks upward to 2.5% to 2.7%… …its big picture is on track to reach the limiters. While the CRB index ticked a new cycle high yesterday. With its big picture target of 270+ in view. This target does not need to be a … Continue reading NFTRH+; Almost too perfect
Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike
A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]
Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to flash negative As FOMC and related noise fade away we are left as we were before the negative market action that attended the event everybody already knew was coming (taper and Fed Funds rate hike talk). Back on November 11th we noted that the BDI was tanking even as the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF (RINF) was making a new (and … Continue reading As FOMC rides off into the sunset…
2-year Treasury yield indicates rising Fed Funds to come The link between commodities and Fed policy has been hit or miss (at best). However, when you add in the 2 year yield, AKA the short end of the bond market that is directing the Fed, you can see a better correlation to the Funds Rate. Indeed, in 2013 (which you will recall was the beginning … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate, CRB & 2yr yield; a macro picture
Gold/CRB ratio indicates a positive risk vs. reward for gold over commodities Most of the 2020 risk in Gold/CRB has been bled out over the last year. Sure, the ratio can continue to drop but that thing in 2020 was epic and unsustainable and so, in my opinion, may be this thing in 2021. As a side note and in highly technical terms, move your … Continue reading Gold/CRB ratio; where is the risk and where is the reward?
Just an FYI that the CRB index held the SMA 50 and our key support area at 210 yesterday. Today, using DBC as a proxy that support hold was in prep for a bounce. So as long as CRB holds 210 (I estimate it to be around 214 today) the situation is intact and still targeting 270 per the monthly chart we review in NFTRH … Continue reading NFTRH+; CRB index
