NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals

On March 21 we had an update noting that the TSX-V (CDNX) had tentatively taken out initial resistance (now support along with the SMA 50 at 856). Today’s attempt at the down-trending SMA 200 is a reasonable objective off of that resistance breakout. But until some kind of divergence vs. the senior TSX comes in I want to have some patience with my speculative ‘resources’ … Continue reading NFTRH+; da ‘V’ and its signals

Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what?

War making and its likely after effects driving commodities So now it is not only the inflation that the Fed and other CBs created in 2020. It is not only the pandemic related supply constraints (vs. inelastic demand). It is also the upheaval in Eastern Europe and around the world driving the commodity bus. CRB index, driven by crude oil, assertively and definitively boinked the … Continue reading Commodity sector (CRB) target in, now what?

SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike

Stocks, commodities and gold after the Fed raises the Funds Rate The S&P 500 has been positive upon the first hike of the Fed Funds rate on the last two cycles. Gold did not do badly either, while commodities languished on the most recent cycle (it was a dis-inflationary yield curve flattener, after all). Barring some kind of economic Armageddon, the 1st rate hike is … Continue reading SPX, CRB & Gold performance after 1st Fed hike

The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

A stroll through recent and not so recent inflationary history [edit] Some wording and a couple typos cleaned up from original post, no changes to themes… A Cynical Fed is a Dangerous Fed On ‘Fed minutes Wednesday’ the media amplified the noise, the machines are doing what the machines do and running with it, and it’s all eyes on the great and powerful Fed (of … Continue reading The Fed’s inflated cake and a ‘quant’ of history [w/ edit]

indicators

As FOMC rides off into the sunset…

Baltic Dry Index (BDI) continues to flash negative As FOMC and related noise fade away we are left as we were before the negative market action that attended the event everybody already knew was coming (taper and Fed Funds rate hike talk). Back on November 11th we noted that the BDI was tanking even as the ‘inflation expectations’ ETF (RINF) was making a new (and … Continue reading As FOMC rides off into the sunset…

indicators

Fed Funds Rate, CRB & 2yr yield; a macro picture

2-year Treasury yield indicates rising Fed Funds to come The link between commodities and Fed policy has been hit or miss (at best). However, when you add in the 2 year yield, AKA the short end of the bond market that is directing the Fed, you can see a better correlation to the Funds Rate. Indeed, in 2013 (which you will recall was the beginning … Continue reading Fed Funds Rate, CRB & 2yr yield; a macro picture

Gold/CRB ratio; where is the risk and where is the reward?

Gold/CRB ratio indicates a positive risk vs. reward for gold over commodities Most of the 2020 risk in Gold/CRB has been bled out over the last year. Sure, the ratio can continue to drop but that thing in 2020 was epic and unsustainable and so, in my opinion, may be this thing in 2021. As a side note and in highly technical terms, move your … Continue reading Gold/CRB ratio; where is the risk and where is the reward?

Your Macro guide, the 30yr Treasury yield

30yr Treasury yield and markets/internals tied to it What markets and market internals are dependent upon an inflationary rise in long-term yields? Anyone? Beuller? For “best of breed” top down analysis of all major markets, subscribe to NFTRH Premium, which includes an in-depth weekly market report, detailed interim market updates and NFTRH+ dynamic updates and chart/trade setup ideas. You can also keep up to date … Continue reading Your Macro guide, the 30yr Treasury yield

copper/gold ratio

Copper/Gold Ratio: The Truth of the Matter

Commodity bulls are running rampant. It’s “inflation all the way, Baby!” and everybody knows this. There are jingles and promotions aplenty out there, of everything from the latest alt. coin as protection from government to admonishments to protect yourself from the coming stock market crash by yup, buying commodities. I’ll say again… a year ago we (NFTRH) became bullish on the macro inflation view and … Continue reading Copper/Gold Ratio: The Truth of the Matter

When Might Gold Become Useful Again?

The title is a trick question. Gold is always useful, even when its heavy ass is going down in price or going down in relation to economically correlated assets like commodities. Insurance and value retention are always useful. Gold is there for when things fall apart, or just after things fall apart. That despite the legions of inflation humpers in the gold “community”. It’s not … Continue reading When Might Gold Become Useful Again?