Gold is the leader. The playbook calls for it to bottom amid deflationary pressure and lead everything else up into the next inflation. Gold>Silver>Miners>Commodities>Stocks... or something along those lines. The…
Here is the 10/2 as presented live here. The spread is pulling back very recently but maintains a modest uptrend (steepening) for 2019. Here is the 5 year view showing…
Over the years we've made a pretty big deal about how the herds get put off sides in bonds prior to macro cycle changes. The 2008 deflationary event put 'em…
A vampire needs to be invited in order to enter your house. So the story goes. But in this case, we are talking about the Macro house, with its nexus…
The charts are super interesting to look at. How quickly things turn, as if on a dime. 2018 featured a break above the Continuum's limiter and folks, you and I…
I have to hit the road today for most of the day. But a little note here as USD is firm and gold is getting dropped because, well, GDP was…
No long-winded post about what I think it means. Just a picture of the 'inflation protected' US Treasury bond iShares (including dividends) hitting new highs. While the unprotected Treasury fund…
While the 30-5 year yield curve does this, implying some inflationary issues... The more commonly watched 10-2 year does this, implying ongoing Goldilocks... While the nominal 2 year yield does…
Daily looks in-market are not meant to be a science. It is longer trends that eventually reveal the logic of ongoing macro moves. But I do find it interesting that…
I was going to look around to see if I could find a media article out there (complete with a TA trying to sound really important) that would be appropriate…
The following is excerpted from the Opening Notes segment in this week's edition of Notes From the Rabbit Hole, NFTRH 525 (out on Sunday, November 11). It pretty much came…
So... Wages and Salaries Jump By 3.1%, Highest Level Since 2008 ...implying the inflationary growth - AKA Trump reflation - theme is alive and well. As noted in the linked blurb…
The title's quote is from my late friend Jonathan Auerbach, who was the founding/managing partner of Auerbach Grayson in NYC, a brokerage specializing in global investment. "It's inflation all the…
The trend continues against the inflationists, but there has been the bullish divergence by Baltic Dry Index (per this NFTRH chart), and the inflation trade has been very oversold, after…