Strange Signals in Inflation Land


Wages and Salaries Jump By 3.1%, Highest Level Since 2008

…implying the inflationary growth – AKA Trump reflation – theme is alive and well. As noted in the linked blurb from Anthony Sanders, the Dow [supposedly] rocketed on the news. I’d say it was just looking for an excuse.

But Industrial Metals continue the tank job we noted yesterday.


And yup, that includes as adjusted vs. gold as well.

And the broad commodity patch has not gotten today’s bull memo either.


Although the 30yr yield is breaking a flag to the upside. Maybe it will hit the 3.5% target (if not higher), after all.

Oh and by the way, the 30yr yield is going to close a month above the limiter today for the first time in the modern era. Side note: I know that you cannot trademark a commonly used word; in this case the Continuum. It was sort of a lame inside joke putting the ‘™’ after it. But the concept is ours and ours alone, at least in its origination.

The 30-5 is still on a steepener, despite a bit of a pullback today. Said pullback is contrary to inflation expectations.

Bottom Line

Okay, the thing that most people call inflation – rising wages – is in play. Stocks celebrate because they were due to pop the cork from all the recently built up pressure. Certain market signals, like the 30yr yield are in line with rising inflation effects. But cyclical commodities are not responding.

Bottom line? I don’t have one in this case. Maybe you can form one from the above. And if you have a high confidence level in it, let me know.

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