Just some impressions – without the usual lines and squiggles. Man stares at charts, has some thoughts. Simple. Take it with a grain of salt because the views are not necessarily positive, but these are long-term monthly charts, AKA the dullest, most lumbering kind. Effective signals will come from the shorter-term charts, which will inform these big dumb pictures eventually.
Gold lurks well above the old Harvey & Erb inflation-adjusted target of 800. That is after all the very long-term support area from the 1970s bubble top. There is another shelf at 1000, which was the top of the pattern formed heading into and out of Armageddon ’08. The monthly RSI & MACD are constructive. But I’ll tell you what, gold needs to get going and get through 1378 next time or it will be vulnerable to an exploration of those lower levels.
Silver begs the question ‘is it a massive long-term bullish Cup & Handle or is it another massive bubble blow off top with years of consolidation left (as per the 1980 bubble burst?)’. What I will say is that those 2015 and 2018 lows need to hold. Period. Also, a woman who stares at patterns could really get grossed out at this one that has formed from 2006 to today.
Transitioning to the more cyclical stuff using Platinum as the go-between. I took a long position here based on the daily chart. While my stop will probably be higher, 800 is the key level for Pt to hold in order to avoid a breakdown. If it were to lose that level 600 could come up quickly. Dig the nice positive divergence by RSI & MACD at the 2018 low, however.
Palladium took a dope slapping back in March and while it’s in a long-term bull trend I’d expect an eventual drop to around 1100, which was the top of the bubble in or around 2000.
Copper, the economic signaler, is grappling with short-term support amid the trade war macro-terror. This chart does not inspire much confidence, but nor is it broken down yet. For fun, you can stare at this chart and imagine (since I’m not drawing anything in) a massive and hyper bullish Symmetrical Triangle. Or you can just stay grounded and let the daily and weekly charts guide the way.
So there you have it. Man stares at big, dull long-term charts and gives some impressions. I am sure you have some of your own as well.
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